April 17, 2019 6:02 AM CDT

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 4/17/2019

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The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-3 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the New York Mets who are 7-5 on the road this season. The Phillies have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Phillies\' starter Jake Arrieta is forecasted to have a better game than Mets\' starter Zack Wheeler. Jake Arrieta has a 33% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Zack Wheeler has a 24% chance of a QS. If Jake Arrieta has a quality start the Phillies has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.8 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Phillies win 69%. In Zack Wheeler quality starts the Mets win 67%. He has a 10% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 67% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Rhys Hoskins who averaged 3.12 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 54% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Dominic Smith who averaged 2.68 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 48% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 52% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Mets

New York MetsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road7-5, 58% 225Record at Home8-3, 73% 267Philadelphia Phillies
VS Philadelphia Phillies1-1, 50% 3VS New York Mets1-1, 50% -17New York Mets
vs Team .500 or Better4-4, 50% -38vs Team Under .5004-4, 50% -45New York Mets
Record As Road Underdog5-3, 62% 271Record As Home Favorite8-3, 73% 267New York Mets
When Zack Wheeler Starts1-2, 33% -102When Jake Arrieta Starts3-0, 100% 190Philadelphia Phillies

LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Mets

New York MetsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road40-41, 49% 530Record at Home49-32, 60% 665Philadelphia Phillies
VS Philadelphia Phillies11-8, 58% 271VS New York Mets8-11, 42% -509New York Mets
vs Team Under .50037-28, 57% 206vs Team Under .50036-32, 53% -659New York Mets
Record As Road Underdog25-27, 48% 793Record As Home Favorite39-22, 64% 584New York Mets
When Zack Wheeler Starts15-13, 54% 223When Jake Arrieta Starts15-17, 47% -203New York Mets

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York MetsRECORDPhiladelphia PhilliesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD10-2, 83% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME7-3, 70% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS10-2, 83% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-3, 70% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON38-37, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON41-39, 51% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Zack Wheeler STARTS2-1, 67% OverOVER-UNDER IN Jake Arrieta STARTS1-1, 50% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 7-5, 58% +86 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 7-4, 64% +223 SIDE VALUE (Last Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 42-39, 52% +413 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 35-46, 43% -1448

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 5-7, 42% -318 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 7-4, 64% +95 MONEY LINE (Last Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 42-39, 52% -684 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 43-38, 53% -614

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 10-2, 83% + 780 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 6-3, 67% + 270 OVER-UNDER RECORD (LAST SEASON) - New York Mets Road Games: 37-33, 53% + 70 Philadelphia Phillies Home Games: 32-47, 41% -1970

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