July 21, 2019 9:30 AM CDT

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates 7/21/2019

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are 22-22 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Philadelphia Phillies who are 21-26 on the road this season. The Pirates have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Pirates\' starter Dario Agrazal is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies\' starter Drew Smyly. Dario Agrazal has a 31% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Drew Smyly has a 14% chance of a QS. If Dario Agrazal has a quality start the Pirates has a 79% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.6 and he has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Pirates win 70%. In Drew Smyly quality starts the Phillies win 61%. He has a 19% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 61% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Pittsburgh Pirates is Josh Bell who averaged 3.09 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 55% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Pirates have a 75% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Rhys Hoskins who averaged 2.65 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 45% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road21-26, 45% -466Record at Home22-22, 50% -183Pittsburgh Pirates
VS Pittsburgh Pirates1-0, 100% 97VS Philadelphia Phillies0-1, 0% -100Philadelphia Phillies
vs Team Under .50027-18, 60% 344vs Team .500 or Better26-43, 38% -1213Philadelphia Phillies
Record As Road Underdog14-19, 42% -280Record As Home Favorite11-12, 48% -336Philadelphia Phillies
When Drew Smyly Starts5-5, 50% 60When Dario Agrazal Starts3-1, 75% 346Pittsburgh Pirates

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road5-5, 50% 27Record at Home8-3, 73% 526Pittsburgh Pirates
VS Pittsburgh Pirates1-0, 100% 97VS Philadelphia Phillies0-1, 0% -100Philadelphia Phillies
vs Team .500 or Better5-6, 45% -54vs Team .500 or Better6-8, 43% 56Pittsburgh Pirates
Record As Road Underdog4-3, 57% 149Record As Home Favorite2-2, 50% -23Philadelphia Phillies
When Drew Smyly Starts0-0 No GamesWhen Dario Agrazal Starts3-0, 100% 446Pittsburgh Pirates

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Philadelphia PhilliesRECORDPittsburgh PiratesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD26-18, 59% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME29-13, 69% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-2, 75% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-3, 70% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON35-42, 45% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON33-43, 43% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Drew Smyly STARTS6-3, 67% OverOVER-UNDER IN Dario Agrazal STARTS2-2, 50% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 27-20, 57% -302 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 29-15, 66% +1218 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 4-6, 40% -337 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 7-4, 64% +330

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 27-20, 57% -72 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 32-12, 73% +1652 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 4-6, 40% -323 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 7-4, 64% +330

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 23-20, 53% + 100 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 28-10, 74% + 1700 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 3-4, 43% -140 Pittsburgh Pirates Home Games: 6-2, 75% + 380

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