2020 NFL Playoffs Picks: Ravens and Saints in the Super Bowl

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2020 NFL Playoffs Preview - Saints vs Ravens Tipped for Super Bowl

The 2020 NFL playoffs are finally upon us, and AccuScore's super computer simulated out the postseason 10,000 times to arrive at probabilities for every team to win the Super Bowl and also every matchup. Before we get too deep into the weeds of how the bracket breaks down, let's take a look at Super Bowl odds for every team: AccuScore and Vegas.

As you can see, the Baltimore Ravens are the top choice to win it all, according to both AccuScore and Vegas. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are both rated a bit higher by Vegas than AccuScore. The best value is on Seattle when comparing to Vegas odds, but the Seahawks are real long shots at 4.5% to win it all, according to AccuScore, and 2.5% to win it all. according to Vegas odds. All in all, Vegas' Super Bowl odds don't offer much value.

AccuScore's 2020 NFL Playoffs Bracket

Ok, no more waiting. Here it is:

There is only one projected upset in the Wildcard round, and it is the Seattle Seahawks over the Philadelphia Eagles, which makes sense considering the Seahawks finished two wins better than the Eagles in a measurably tougher division. The Patriots, Saints and Texans are all predicted to comfortably take care of business. The Bills have the best shot of pulling the upset out of those three games.

AFC Playoffs

In the divisional round, the Patriots losing to the Dolphins in the final game of the season comes back to haunt Tom Brady and company. A trip to Arrowhead in January in the divisional round should see the Patriots eliminated from the postseason, with rumors that this could be the end of Brady in Boston.

The Super Bowl favorite Ravens expect to waltz past the Texans and into an AFC title game at home against the Chiefs. With Lamar Jackson leading the way, at home, the Ravens have a 60-40 edge, according to AccuScore. This seems like it's Baltimore's year. It's seemed that way for a while now, and AccuScore likes the Ravens.

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NFC Playoffs

After taking care of the Vikings at home, the Saints have the unenviable task of facing to Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have managed to get a bye and put themselves in position to take down the Saints, but AccuScore likes New Orleans. A lot. The Saints, even on the road, take the Packers down and advance to the NFC title game for the second year in a row.

On the opposite side of the bracket, the San Francisco 49ers beat the Seahawks in a divisional round matchup--emphasis on division. This will be the third meeting between the two teams this season, and the first two meetings had a net difference of two points and involved one overtime game. The rested 49ers at home get the decided edge in AccuScore's eyes.

And thus, we get a rematch of what most consider the game of the season: 49ers vs. Saints. This time, San Francisco would host, but AccuScore likes the Saints to get past the 49ers in a close game, giving New Orleans a 53% edge. Of course, one bad call could change all that, but let's hope it doesn't come down to that for New Orleans' sake.

Super Bowl: Ravens Vs. Saints

The Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson, the quarterback of the present and the future, facing the New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees, who will be 41 by the time the Super Bowl is played, will be a matchup for the ages, pun intended. The Saints showed that they are more than Brees this season, but the Ravens with Lamar Jackson have been the toughest nut to crack in the NFL. If Baltimore makes it to the Super Bowl, the Ravens will be riding a 14-game winning streak. Understandably, AccuScore likes the Ravens with a healthy 59% edge, making them clear favorites.

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More Than a Trend: Algorithms Dominate Traditional NFL Experts

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NFL Experts Cannot Predict - Except One, But Algorithms Can

The NFL Playoffs are starting this week. Many of the usual suspects are hunting for the Super Bowl. Before we get to AccuScore’s playoff predictions, let’s take a look at football experts’ prediction accuracy during the 2019 regular season.

Nflpickwatch.com has tracked more than 80 NFL experts, listing all game winner predictions for each expert all season long. AccuScore was the most accurate predictor this year, according to NFLpickwatch. Was this just luck or is there some more qualified answers why AccuScore’s simulations did so well?

Thanksfully, nflpickwatch,com has tracked NFL experts since 2014. During these six seasons, there have been 32 experts (or fan groups like ESPN fans) that have predicted over 1500 games. This sample size can be considered big enough to make some conclusions about accuracy.

Out of top 10 predictors, two were actual persons (Jamey Eisenberg, CBS and K.J. Joyner ESPN), three were generated by crowdsourcing (Pickwatch fans, Expert consensus and ESPN Fans) - Yahoo Users were number 11, one was Vegas favorite based on betting markets and four were algorithm based prediction companies (TeamRankings, Numberfire, Accuscore and Fivethirtyeight).

After Yahoo users at 11th place, all the other 21 experts were traditional experts, i.e. people seen on TV or read from the internet. Maybe we based our bets or fantasy football team selections on these experts’ comments and advice. During this season, an interesting fact is that the NFL Networks’ top expert quartet--Rich Eisen, Michael Irwin, Kurt Warner and Steve Mariucci--were among the bottom 5 experts being tracked. For their purposes, the topics they discuss are far more important to their jobs than the predictions they provide.

It is interesting to note that companies that provide predictions and picks for individuals are doing much better compared to individual experts. Also, it’s not exactly a surprise that the betting market is one of the best indications of the game winners in the NFL. It is rewarding to hit big on an underdog, but in the long run, dull favorites with side value bring wins to your pocket in sports betting.

How much do you end up winning by picking straight up winners correct in the NFL? During the current season, Accuscore was the most accurate picker of the winners. If you would bet 100 for every game during the season, you would end up having $454 in your pocket at the end of the season. Not a fortune, but better than nothing.

Naturally, the better approach is to compare win probabilities and betting odds from bookmakers side-by-side to find value opportunities to take advantage of. Based on AccuScore’s simulations, $100 bets for every game based on moneyline side value generated $3,097 profit at the end of the season. That’s dramatically better than the $454 profit from straight moneyline betting and ignoring which moneyline odds actually offer value.

Based on these numbers, the best approach to win in the NFL betting is to follow the algorithm based predictions and compare those probabilities to the best odds from sportsbooks. Forget the “experts” -- except maybe one.

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NFL Playoffs Predictions, Wild Card Picks

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Final NFL Playoff Spots Up for Grabs: AccuScore's Predictions

There are only three weeks left in the 2019 NFL regular season, with several teams already securing their postseason berths. In a few divisions, along with the Wild Card spots of course, the playoff picture is still wide open.

Accuscore simulated the remainder of the NFL season and updated its season predictions to predict which teams will get in and which teams will be on the outside looking in.

So, who's going to the playoffs?

NFC

San Francisco and New Orleans are the top teams in the NFC, and it looks like both will earn the highly coveted bye on Wildcard Weekend. Seattle still has 40% chance to win the NFC West over San Francisco, so the 49ers aren't exactly guaranteed to win the division. This NFC West may well be decided in the final game of the season, when the Seahawks and 49ers face-off in Seattle.

Right now, it looks like Green Bay and Dallas are the two other divisional winners in the NFC. Winning the division is the only way for Dallas gets into the postseason, seeing as the Cowboys have a losing record with three weeks to go. The probability for Dallas to sneak in is 53% with the Philadelphia Eagles 47% to make the playoffs. It's just about a coinflip, with Dallas edging it.

Minnesota’s divisional win probability is 42%, while Green Bay has the upper hand right with a probability of 58% to win the NFC North. The Vikings, however, still have a solid shot to make the playoffs via the Wild Card. At the moment, Minnesota is 72% to play in January. Regardless of whether the Vikings win the division or grab a playoff spot, they will be playing on Wild Card Weekend.

The rather important question is: Will it be home or away game for the Vikings?

If Green Bay loses the division to MInnesota, the Packers' chances of snatching a Wild Card slot are even better than the Vikings. Right now, Aaron Rodgers and company are over 86% to reach the playoffs. The only team with a realistic chance to knock out Green Bay/Minnesota from a Wild Card spot is the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams' current percentage to make the playoffs is 43%, with last year's Super Bowl runner-ups facing two tough road games against Dallas and San Francisco.

With three weeks to go, here's how AccuScore sees the NFC playoff picture developing:

1. San Francisco 49ers
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

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Note: AccuScore's Spread and Totals Picks are +4600 profit this season. With AccuScore only gaining in accuracy as the season progresses, don't miss out on money time.

AFC

The Baltimore Ravens, led by Lamar Jackson, have been the story of this season. They have already secured the playoffs spot and, most probably, will have the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That would mean no trip to New England or Kansas City in January for the Ravens, along with the bye.

The Kansas City Chiefs have also secured a playoff spot. However, the Chiefs may not get the first round bye, as New England is projected to finish the season witha slighlty better record.

With the Ravens, Chiefs and Patriots all but guaranteed to with their respective divisions, the AFC South is wide open between Houston and Tennessee. With three weeks to go, it looks like Houston has a 54%-46% edge to win the division and take home field advantage for the first round of playoffs.

Winning the division is likely the only chance the Titans and Texans have to make the postseason.

Buffalo and Pittsburgh have the inside track on the AFC Wild Card spots based on season simulations. Their playoffs probabilities are 87% and 83%, respectively. Pittsburgh's performance has been quite remarkable considering star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was injured in the second game of the season, along with thee Steelers' starting running back and top wide receiver have missed extensive time due the injuries.

Houston’s and Tennessee’s playoff probabilities are about 10% higher than their chances to win the AFC South. Both teams control their own destinies, as they face each other twice during the last three weeks. Tennessee will also have the unenviable task of facing New Orleans. Houston, on the other hand, will have much easier trip to Tampa Bay in two weeks. The winner of the AFC South is a coinflip -- again.

With three weeks to go, here's how AccuScore sees the AFC playoff picture developing:

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. New England Patriots
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Houston Texans
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

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