October 20, 2011 4:24 PM CDT

North Carolina State vs Virginia 10/22/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with North Carolina State winning 46% of simulations, and Virginia 54% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. North Carolina State commits fewer turnovers in 51% of simulations and they go on to win 58% when they take care of the ball. Virginia wins 75% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. James Washington is averaging 67 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. Perry Jones is averaging 64 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 68%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is VA -5.5 --- Over/Under line is 52

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

North Carolina StateATS RECORDVirginiaATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games1-2-1All Games1-4-0North Carolina State
Road & Neutral Field0-2-0Home Games1-2-0Virginia
When Underdog0-1-1When Favored0-3-0No Edge
Conference Opp0-1-1Conference Opp1-1-0Virginia
Opp .500+ Record0-1-1Opp Under .5000-2-0No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.

North Carolina StateATS RECORDVirginiaATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-3-0All Games4-6-0North Carolina State
Road & Neutral Field5-2-0Home Games2-3-0North Carolina State
When Underdog6-1-0When Favored1-1-0North Carolina State
Conference Opp6-2-0Conference Opp2-6-0North Carolina State
Opp Under .5004-0-0Opp .500+ Record2-5-0North Carolina State

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

North Carolina StateO-U-P RECORDVirginiaO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)3-1-0All Totals (O-U-P)2-3-0OVER
On Road1-1-0At Home1-2-0UNDER
All Totals 20105-7-0All Totals 20106-4-0No Edge
On Road 20103-4-0At Home 20104-1-0OVER

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