favorite initial values at Augusta.
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Shell Houston Open Field
144 Players | Top 70 & Tie Make the Cut
Once Jim Herman fended off Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Rafa Cabrera Bello, and Daniel Berger in the final round to capture the Shell Houston Open title in 2016, we should have all went to the bank, emptied the kids’ college funds, walked directly to the betting window and put it all on Trump to be president. But we didn’t. Sad! If a former Trump course assistant pro (Trump National Bedminster) who The Donald funded to go join the mini-tours to take one last crack at glory was able to close out an elite group of chasers, then clearly Hil-Dawg had no chance. The Hermanator also echoed his former boss’ ideas about America and its greatness in becoming the sixth US birth certificate (maybe) holder to win at the Golf Club of Houston in the last seven years. Who was the only villainous immigrant laborer to steal American novelty checks? It was the Australian (i.e. likely a criminal) Matt Jones in 2014.
A year later, Herman returns to defend his title along with, not only those aforementioned elite names, but an entire cavalcade of top-end players looking to get in some final prep for the quickly-approaching trek to Augusta: DJ (1) (Withdrew Monday), Stenson (5), Jordan Spieth (6), Adam Scott (7), and Rickie Fowler (9) comprise the Top 10 contingent, while Patrick Reed (12), Justin Rose (13), Jon Rahm (14), Phil Mickelson (19), Matt Kuchar (21), Jimmy Walker (24), and Rafa Cabrera Bello (26) represent the Top 30 in the world rankings. Overall, there are 31 players in Houston who have already qualified for the Masters, and four of them, all European Tour members, have received a sponsor’s invite to pad the strength of this field a little more. Andy Sullivan, Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger, and Chris Wood all decided an extra few competitive rounds of golf would be the best way to kill their free week in America. They we’re already in Austin anyway.
Of the remaining 131 players who don’t have permission to drive up Magnolia Lane, they know this is their final opportunity to get into The Masters. There’s only one way to do it: Win. If not, they’ll have to enter that lousy ticket raffle with the rest of us losers if they want to scope out the grounds. Even though you see all those familiar names committed to tee off in Houston, the “win and you’re in” method of receiving an Augusta invite is not uncommon. Herman earned his last season, Jones in 2014, and DA Points did it in 2013.
For you hardcore golf enthusiasts, you’ll be happy to see Valspar runner-up Patrick Cantlay is lacing up the spikes for his third start of 2017, and SUPER ROOK Beau Hossler is taking another crack at earning his full time PGA status. Euro Tour regular Peter Uihlien picked up a T5 in Puerto Rico last week and will make a cameo in Houston. And, for whatever reason, Robert Allenby is somehow still allowed in PGA events. Meaning, the odds of an overnight arrest just skyrocketed to around even money.
Shell Houston Open Key Stats
Strokes Tee-To-Green
Approaches 175+ Yards
Par 5 Scoring
Ball Striking
Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 Yards
Shell Houston Open Course
Golf Club of Houston | 7,441 Yards | Par 72
Besides the wind and a hilarious amount of hazards, the repeated narrative that’ll get jammed down your throat this week is how the Golf Club of Houston is set up to mimic Augusta National, and that’s why so many players love coming to this course. Now, some of that is true, but it’s only in specific areas. The fairways and limited rough just off said fairways and the putting surfaces are almost identical to what the field will see at The Masters. That’s really it, though. The greens are not only a different grass types, they get flatter than Earth the closer you get to the hole. This is the opposite of the undulating surfaces at Augusta. Plus, with so many hazards in play off the tees in Houston, players won’t be able to employ Lee Carvello’s POWER DRIVE philosophy the entire field will take next week.
While it sounds like nothing is similar after that spiel, there are actually two distinct benefits the GC of Houston can offer as a Masters tune-up. While a lot of the field won’t be going driver off the tee on every hole, the strategic element of understanding what side of the hole you want to be on to set up the best angle of attack is very much in play. This is one of the biggest factors to Masters success. Obviously, the shots won’t be the same, but simply getting into that mindset will pay dividends; there’s a reason the same players continue to pop up on the leaderboard at Augusta every year, even if they’re well into their 50s. Further, since the fairways and first cut are so similar, the feel of approach spots will help players develop the proper rhythm for their second shots and work around the green. And don’t take it from me, take it from former Houston winner, Three-time Masters champ, and star of the new direct-to-demand, seniors only remake of Grease, Phil Mickelson, “YOU GOT ANY HOT INSIDE STOCK TIPS?????” Phil, we went over this, Want to try again? “I’ve been in every single hazard on this golf course over the years. I know exactly where they are.” Jesus, Phil, calm down. Let’s give Jordan Spieth a shot to fill us in, “The grass type, the shots you’re hitting off the fairways are very similar. Lot of kind-of-slightly-into-the-grain, overseeded-type grass. Just feels similar when you set the club behind the ball. Almost every single hole you got to avoid one side or the other, which kind of prepares you for the Masters. Not that there’s water, a lot of water at Augusta, but one side is normally dead. So, you very much have to commit to a certain target out here.”
Have some caution with players already locked into The Masters however. A lot of them are merely in Houston to test out the shot shapes and distances they’ll need next week. Phil, want to give this one last go? “To play this course effectively, you got to hit a lot of 3-woods, play more defensive. At Augusta, though, you have to step on the driver, and so I hit a lot more drivers here this week than I would if I were really focused on trying to win this week. I’m more focused about hitting shots for next week. I tried some cut drivers like on 13, I hit a couple of good ones, hit some bad ones, but I needed to get that work in on a competitive environment.”
For styles of play, we’ve seen a lot of different skill sets emerge victorious over the years, so there are a myriad ways to attack this layout.
If you’re going to miss fairways, much like if you have improper bedroom motion, you better be deep. On route to victory in 2015, JB Holmes led the field in driving distance and only managed to find 44.6% of fairways. Good for dead last. Call that method an anomaly, though. Only five players in history have captured multiple PGA titles finding fewer than 50% of fairways during an event.
The greens are simple to hit, but getting close to the hole on those approaches is where the challenge really rests. The path of least resistance to generate easy birdie opportunities is to try and leave approach shots less than 125 yards from the pin. In 2015, GC of Houston had the ninth-shortest distance to the hole on approaches from that range while ranking fifth-easiest on strokes coming inside 100 yards from the rough. This is another reason deep, wayward drivers can still excel at this course. Still, overall proximity was the ninth-longest of 53 measured courses, including yearly high on approaches from beyond 200 yards (59’5”). It’s easy to say load up on quality wedge players since they’re going to leave themselves a slew of straightforward birdie tries, however most players on TOUR are pretty solid from 125 yards and in. Those who can reduce their proximity from deep will be the ones who end up atop the Sunday leaderboard. GC of Houston historically ranks inside the Top Five of two categories: toughest scrambling courses from the rough and easy putting inside 10 feet. Laser accuracy with long iron will assist largely; most of the approaches will come from that length.
Also, the 18th Hole is hell. Ask Robert Garrigus, he’ll tell you. One of the toughest final holes on TOUR, since 2006, the 488 yard Par 4 has seen over 540 balls get wetter than Oprah at the sight of a Weight Watchers-approved pizza. That’s second most of any closing hole; No. 18 at TPC Southwind is the only one with more. Overall, GC of Houston has seen over 3,000 balls land in the aqua in the past 10 years. To think, these guys get their balls rinsed for free. We have to pay $13.99 + shipping. Again, only TPC Southwind has had more.
Finally, the Par 4s are off the rails. They come in all forms: straight, doglegged, long, and short. Texas, be who you want to be. And here I figured that was strictly an Austin thing. Who knew? Most weeks, courses feature varied lengths of Par 4s between 400-500 yards, maybe a shorty or two, but GC of Houston does it differently.
300-350 yards – 1
350-400 yards – 3
400-450 yards – 2
450-500 yards – 4
You better be able to play those four long ones successfully, as three of them are the most challenge holes on the course. The past seven champs have ranked Top 10 in scoring from this range and no champion has played them over par since Paul Casey in 2009. He was 16th best in the field that week, with a 4.091 average.
Shell Houston Open Picks (Yahoo! Game)
Dustin Johnson Adam Scott & Rickie Fowler – DJ hasn’t lost since becoming the world’s No. 1 player and, weirdly, led the field in SG: Putting at this event last year yet didn’t win. That doesn’t happen very often… Scott hasn’t been quite up to standard thus far in 2017, yet, hasn’t failed to make a cut in four starts and is the world’s best long iron player when he’s clicking.
Justin Rose, Jordan Spieth, Charley Hoffman, & Jimmy Walker – Rose has been victimized by one mediocre round in each event, but possesses the required skill set to contend in Houston… Keeping up with chalk week, Spieth is a no brainer at almost any event. Honestly, I’m hoping for a lousy result this week so I can get a better price on him at The Masters. That’s wishful thinking though… When in Texas, take Hoffman. He’s is making his 11th start in the Shell Houston Open and has never missed a cut. I was willing to cross his name off my list until he finally popped up with a stellar performance at Bay Hill… Like Hoffman, if an event is in Texas, Walker is almost an autoplay. At a course where spraying it off the tee isn’t much of an issue, unless you’re in the water, Walker will be able to use his Top 50 proximity form 175-225 to his advantage.
Jon Rahm & JB Holmes – Rahm is now up to No. 14 in the world rankings after his runner-up ate Match Play last week. The 22-year-old now has four Top 5s, along with a win, in his past five starts… JB, the 2015 champ, is a perfect six-for-six in cuts made this season, despite zero Top 10 finishes. That should change this week. Deadly with a wedge, and excellent from beyond 100 yards, Holmes has parlayed those skills into four Top 15 paychecks in Houston in his past five trips.
The Pat Mayo Hour covers the entire scope of the Fantasy sports landscape from Football to Reality TV, daily and yearly leagues and everything in between. You can watch the Pat Mayo Hour every weekday at 3:00pm EST, 8:00pm EST and Midnight on the FNTSY Sports Network Television channel or on your Apple TV, Xbox, Roku or Amazon Fire Stick. If you have a Fantasy question, general inquiry or snarky comment, ship it to Mayo at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and the best will be addressed on the show.
