Market Power Poll

Points, not votes

1. Start from the line. Each game's closing point spread is the market's expected winning margin. The poll uses two numbers per game, averaged: the sportsbooks’ consensus line and the prediction markets’ line (the middle of Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX and Novig).
2. Every line compares two teams. Favoured by 7 over a weak team says less than favoured by 3 over a strong one, so every team's rating is solved together from all games.
3. Recent weeks count most, and next week counts too. A game's weight halves every 3 weeks. The Tuesday poll also reads next week's lines, so a win shows up the same week through the market's reaction. Week 1 starts from 80% of last season's final rating.
4. Sportsbooks vs prediction markets. The same calculation also runs on the sportsbooks’ lines alone and on the prediction markets’ alone. The team panel shows each market’s ranking; the section below the poll shows where the two disagree most.

Same method, AccuScore's numbers

AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times and publishes its own projected margin. Running those margins through exactly the same calculation gives an AccuScore rating for every team: the teal dot in the poll and the dashed line in the team chart.

When the teal dot sits right of the bar's end, AccuScore thinks the team is better than the market does. AccuScore's ratings spread wider than the market's (its simulations project bigger margins), so the Accu rank is the fairer comparison.