AccuScore Market Index · NFL

Market Power Poll?Every team rated only from betting prices. NFL: points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field. NHL, MLB and NBA: the chance to beat an average team on neutral ice, field or court, where 50% is average.

Every NFL team rated from the lines on the sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket, updated every Tuesday. The number is how many points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field. AccuScore's own rating sits next to it.

Chaos calendar?Each week's upsets against the number the closing prices expected. Chalky: fewer upsets than expected. Normal, wild, and rarely chaos: far more than expected. A week where the top 10 lose far more often than their prices said is chaos too, however the other games went.

Upsets and chalk, week by week

?Home advantage is estimated from the prices every week. Recent games count most: a game's weight halves every three weeks, and Week 1 starts from 80% of last season's final rating.
Upset markets?Fair odds on how many favourites will lose in the coming week, priced from the same prices: every game is its own coin with its own odds.

Sportsbooks vs prediction markets?The ranking run twice, once on the sportsbooks' prices and once on the prediction markets' (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX, Novig), and the teams they rate most differently.

Where they disagree

Poll vs the markets?Last week's ratings turned into a price for each game, next to the market's actual price. The gap is what the market saw that the ratings did not: results since, injuries, lineups.

How it's calculated

Points, not votes

  1. Start from the line. Each game's closing point spread is the market's expected winning margin. The poll uses two numbers per game, averaged: the sportsbooks’ consensus line and the prediction markets’ line (the middle of Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX and Novig).
  2. Every line compares two teams. Favoured by 7 over a weak team says less than favoured by 3 over a strong one, so every team's rating is solved together from all games.
  3. Recent weeks count most, and next week counts too. A game's weight halves every 3 weeks. The Tuesday poll also reads next week's lines, so a win shows up the same week through the market's reaction. Week 1 starts from 80% of last season's final rating.
  4. Sportsbooks vs prediction markets. The same calculation also runs on the sportsbooks’ lines alone and on the prediction markets’ alone. The team panel shows each market’s ranking; the section below the poll shows where the two disagree most.
Line = Team rating − Opponent rating + Home field

Where AccuScore sits

Same method, AccuScore's numbers

AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times and publishes its own projected margin. Running those margins through exactly the same calculation gives an AccuScore rating for every team: the teal dot in the poll and the dashed line in the team chart.

When the teal dot sits right of the bar's end, AccuScore thinks the team is better than the market does. AccuScore's ratings spread wider than the market's (its simulations project bigger margins), so the Accu rank is the fairer comparison.

This week's top 10, by the markets

New to the Market Index? Two short videos show how to read it.

NFL 2026 · Week 9

  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars+5.4 pts6–2
  2. 2Los Angeles Rams+4.8 pts5–4
  3. 3Buffalo Bills+4.4 pts6–1
  4. 4San Francisco 49ers+4.4 pts7–1
  5. 5Seattle Seahawks+4.0 pts5–4
  6. 6Kansas City Chiefs+3.6 pts6–2
  7. 7Cincinnati Bengals+3.2 pts6–2
  8. 8Houston Texans+3.2 pts3–5
  9. 9Detroit Lions+3.1 pts6–2
  10. 10Denver Broncos+2.5 pts7–2

NCAAF 2026 · Week 10

  1. 1Notre Dame+28.7 pts7–1
  2. 2Ohio State+26.9 pts6–2
  3. 3Georgia+25.7 pts7–1
  4. 4Miami+23.9 pts8–0
  5. 5Indiana+23.8 pts8–1
  6. 6Texas+22.2 pts7–2
  7. 7LSU+21.9 pts6–3
  8. 8Alabama+21.1 pts7–2
  9. 9Oregon+19.1 pts6–3
  10. 10Ole Miss+18.1 pts6–2

NHL 2026–27 · Week 7

  1. 1Carolina Hurricanes62% vs an average team13–3–2
  2. 2Tampa Bay Lightning61% vs an average team11–4–2
  3. 3Colorado Avalanche61% vs an average team10–6–2
  4. 4Dallas Stars58% vs an average team9–5–2
  5. 5Utah Mammoth57% vs an average team10–7–1
  6. 6Minnesota Wild57% vs an average team12–3–3
  7. 7New Jersey Devils57% vs an average team11–6
  8. 8Vegas Golden Knights57% vs an average team13–5–2
  9. 9Florida Panthers54% vs an average team10–7–2
  10. 10Edmonton Oilers54% vs an average team13–3–3

NBA 2026–27 · Week 4

  1. 1San Antonio Spurs71% vs an average team8–2
  2. 2New York Knicks61% vs an average team5–5
  3. 3Boston Celtics61% vs an average team6–2
  4. 4Oklahoma City Thunder60% vs an average team6–1
  5. 5Houston Rockets60% vs an average team7–2
  6. 6Detroit Pistons58% vs an average team6–3
  7. 7Denver Nuggets57% vs an average team5–4
  8. 8Los Angeles Lakers57% vs an average team7–2
  9. 9Philadelphia 76ers56% vs an average team9–0
  10. 10Cleveland Cavaliers56% vs an average team5–5

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