The San Diego Padres are 6-8 at home this season and the Philadelphia Phillies are 6-4 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Padres starter Joe Musgrove is forecasted to have a better game than Phillies starter Aaron Nola. Joe Musgrove has a 42% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Aaron Nola has a 34% chance of a QS. If Joe Musgrove has a quality start the Padres has a 72% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.9 and he has a 45% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 59%. In Aaron Nola quality starts the Phillies win 65%. He has a 41% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 65% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Joe Musgrove who averaged 3.13 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 69% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 67% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Philadelphia Phillies is Aaron Nola who averaged 3.31 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 75% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Phillies have a 55% chance of winning.
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. NEITHER TEAM HAS UNITS EDGE
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 6-4, 60% 30 | Record at Home | 6-8, 43% -352 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| VS San Diego Padres | 0-0 No Games | VS Philadelphia Phillies | 0-0 No Games | N/A |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 7-7, 50% -133 | vs Team .500 or Better | 8-6, 57% 230 | San Diego Padres |
| Record as Road Favorite | 5-3, 62% 36 | Record as Home Underdog | 0-2, 0% -200 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| When Aaron Nola Starts | 4-1, 80% 102 | When Joe Musgrove Starts | 4-2, 67% 173 | San Diego Padres |
LAST SEASON: We advise focusing on these trends in the first month of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Philadelphia Phillies
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | UNITS EDGE |
|---|
| Record on the Road | 43-43, 50% -424 | Record at Home | 44-37, 54% -893 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| VS San Diego Padres | 5-2, 71% 217 | VS Philadelphia Phillies | 2-5, 29% -318 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| vs Team .500 or Better | 55-48, 53% 184 | vs Team .500 or Better | 40-51, 44% -1738 | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Record as Road Favorite | 28-23, 55% -251 | Record as Home Underdog | 5-7, 42% -140 | San Diego Padres |
| When Aaron Nola Starts | 22-15, 59% 93 | When Joe Musgrove Starts | 11-6, 65% 104 | San Diego Padres |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| Philadelphia Phillies | RECORD | San Diego Padres | RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| OVER-UNDER ON ROAD | 1-8, 11% Over | OVER-UNDER AT HOME | 7-6, 54% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 1-8, 11% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS | 7-5, 58% Over | UNDER |
| ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 42-43, 49% Over | ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON | 33-45, 42% Over | OVER |
| OVER-UNDER IN Aaron Nola STARTS | 2-3, 40% Over | OVER-UNDER IN Joe Musgrove STARTS | 4-2, 67% Over | N/A |
ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.
SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 5-5, 50% -500 San Diego Padres Home Games: 6-8, 43% -200 SIDE VALUE (Last Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 40-46, 47% -1325 San Diego Padres Home Games: 38-43, 47% -671
MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 7-3, 70% +198 San Diego Padres Home Games: 5-9, 36% -490 MONEY LINE (Last Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 43-43, 50% -932 San Diego Padres Home Games: 45-36, 56% -642
OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 6-3, 67% + 270 San Diego Padres Home Games: 7-5, 58% + 150 OVER-UNDER RECORD (LAST SEASON) - Philadelphia Phillies Road Games: 36-42, 46% -1020 San Diego Padres Home Games: 31-35, 47% -750
Click here to see AccuScore's pick for this game
