July 01, 2025 12:24 PM EST

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets 7/1/2025

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The New York Mets are 29-12 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Milwaukee Brewers who are 20-20 on the road this season. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a good chance of having a quality start. Clay Holmes has a 51% chance of a QS and Freddy Peralta a 46% chance. If Clay Holmes has a quality start the Mets has a 80% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.5 and he has a 17% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 60%. If Freddy Peralta has a quality start the Brewers has a 60% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.5 and he has a 23% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Brewers win 41%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Juan Soto who averaged 2.41 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 70% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Milwaukee Brewers is Christian Yelich who averaged 2.13 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 34% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Brewers have a 57% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Mets

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDNew York MetsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road20-20, 50% 29Record at Home29-12, 71% 593New York Mets
VS New York Mets0-0 No GamesVS Milwaukee Brewers0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better22-22, 50% -30vs Team .500 or Better23-18, 56% 219New York Mets
Record As Road Underdog14-16, 47% 39Record As Home Favorite27-8, 77% 777New York Mets
When Freddy Peralta Starts10-7, 59% -22When Clay Holmes Starts11-5, 69% 121New York Mets

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDNew York MetsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road7-2, 78% 598Record at Home6-5, 55% -190Milwaukee Brewers
VS New York Mets0-0 No GamesVS Milwaukee Brewers0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5007-5, 58% 127vs Team .500 or Better3-10, 23% -652Milwaukee Brewers
Record As Road Underdog7-2, 78% 598Record As Home Favorite6-3, 67% 10Milwaukee Brewers
When Freddy Peralta Starts4-1, 80% 163When Clay Holmes Starts3-2, 60% -78Milwaukee Brewers

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Milwaukee BrewersRECORDNew York MetsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD17-21, 45% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME17-22, 44% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-5, 44% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-5, 55% OverN/A
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON38-40, 49% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON46-40, 53% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Freddy Peralta STARTS6-11, 35% OverOVER-UNDER IN Clay Holmes STARTS7-9, 44% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 21-19, 52% -208 New York Mets Home Games: 19-22, 46% -931 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 2-7, 22% -426 New York Mets Home Games: 5-6, 45% -291

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 23-17, 58% -14 New York Mets Home Games: 23-18, 56% -487 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 2-7, 22% -553 New York Mets Home Games: 8-3, 73% +151

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 18-14, 56% + 260 New York Mets Home Games: 15-17, 47% -370 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Milwaukee Brewers Road Games: 2-4, 33% -240 New York Mets Home Games: 3-5, 38% -250

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