The expanded College Football Playoff turns prediction season into a math problem, not a beauty contest. AccuScore ran thousands of simulations on the 2025 bracket and translated every likely matchup into a win probability.

The results point to a tournament defined by razor-thin quarterfinals, a pair of power programs separating from the pack, and a championship tilt that tilts—if only slightly—toward Happy Valley.

How the model reads the bracket

Our approach is straightforward. For every game on the path from first round to the title, we simulate head-to-head outcomes based on opponent strength, location context, roster baselines and recent efficiency trends. The percentages below are the probabilities of each team winning that matchup if it occurs. Where it helps, we also chain those probabilities to show what happens “if chalk holds” along the projected path—always noting that alternate opponents would slightly change the math.

First round: blueblood jeopardy and a G5 reality check

The opening weekend would be anything but a formality. Notre Dame carries one of the largest first-round edges on the board, a 71% favorite over Michigan. The number reflects more than brand power: over thousands of runs, Notre Dame’s defense holds the floor in a way Michigan struggles to crack consistently in a road-site setting.

Elsewhere, three games land closer to the uneasy middle. Kansas State projects as a commanding 79% favorite over South Alabama (USA)—a nod to Big 12 depth and line-of-scrimmage heft—but the remaining two ties invite drama. Ohio State is a 64% favorite over Oregon, a rematch with real volatility thanks to chunk-play profiles on both sides. And Alabama–LSU is the most combustible of the four, with the Tide favored 59%–41%—a number that bakes in just enough turnover risk to keep the remote in your hand.

Quarterfinals: four coin flips and a message about margins

If the bracket advances as expected, all four quarterfinals sit on a knife’s edge:

• Miami (58%) vs. Notre Dame (42%): The Hurricanes’ edge is small but persistent in our runs—driven by explosive-play potential that turns stalemates into seven-point wins. If you’re tracking advancement odds, note that Notre Dame’s route to the semis requires both the Michigan win (71%) and this upset (42%); chained together, that’s ~29.8% for the Irish to reach the final four.
  
  
• Texas (58%) vs. Kansas State (42%): Texas owns the prettier middle of the distribution. K-State’s first-round probability is large (79%), but once it runs into a roster with top-five talent density, the Wildcats’ advantage on coaching and scheme doesn’t fully overcome the Longhorns’ athletic ceiling. Even so, K-State’s path to the semis pencils out near 33.2% when you multiply the rounds—real live-dog territory.
  
  
• Penn State (57%) vs. Ohio State (43%): This is the hinge of the entire tournament. Our sims treat Penn State’s defense and late-down stability as the decisive tiebreakers, but the margin keeps the Buckeyes very much alive. For context, Ohio State’s chance to reach the semis—first Oregon (64%), then Penn State upset (43%)—lands around 27.5%.
  
  
• Georgia (57%) vs. Alabama (43%): Edge, Bulldogs—just. Alabama’s first-round obligation (59% over LSU) means the Tide’s chained probability of reaching the semis is about 25.4%, while Georgia, slotted directly into the quarterfinal, needs only to clear a near-coin-flip to step into the final four.
  
  

Semifinals: Texas and Penn State win the next coinflips 

Our semifinal board reads like a pair of recurring themes. In the first game, Texas becomes a 58% favorite over Miami. The Longhorns’ path-to-final share is notable: 58% in the quarter × 58% in the semi yields ~33.6% to make the title game if the bracket behaves. Miami’s chance to reach the final, by contrast, is ~24.4% (58% quarter × 42% semi), an eloquent summary of how thin the margin is between “dangerous” and “dominant.”

In the second game, Penn State sits 57% over Georgia, a verdict powered by a subtly higher median on both lines of scrimmage and more reliable finishing drives. Chaining the numbers, the Nittany Lions reach the championship about 32.5% of the time along this chalk route, with Georgia close behind at 24.5%.

Championship game: Penn State–Texas, and why the edge is purple and white

Add the pieces together and the most common final in our universe is Penn State vs. Texas, with the Nittany Lions a 56% favorite. There’s nothing mystical about the gap. Texas’ athletic profile gives it knockout power, but Penn State’s defense, situational efficiency and special teams narrow the variance—precisely the traits that matter most in a title setting where possessions are scarce and field position replaces tempo as the chief lever.

If you insist on a single number for the “chalk path” title chance, our chain says Penn State ~18.2% to finish the job (57% quarter × 57% semi × 56% final), with Texas ~14.8% (58% × 58% × 44%). That is not a comprehensive “win it all” percentage—alternate opponents would move the decimals—but it captures the central idea: Penn State enters August with the most robust route through the matchups that show up most often in our simulations, and Texas is the one team built to live with that profile for four quarters on a neutral field.

What the percentages tell us about style—and where an upset lives

The numbers sketch the story of this playoff. Notre Dame’s opening-round edge over Michigan implies a game where the Irish can win with control: reduce possessions, force third-and-medium, kick instead of chase. Ohio State’s 64% over Oregon is less about conservative play and more about how often the Buckeyes create two explosive scoring drives the Ducks can’t match without perfect protection. Alabama’s margin over LSU hints at a defensive front that tilts short-yardage downs. Kansas State’s power in the opener and its puncher’s chance against Texas reflect a machine that punishes mistakes without needing to play from +7.

By the quarterfinals the model stops handing out comfort. Miami–Notre Dame, Texas–Kansas State, Penn State–Ohio State, Georgia–Alabama—three games in the 57–58% band and one just a notch below are the definition of tournament volatility. In that world, coaching decisions carry outsized weight. Fourth-down aggression, red-zone play selection, even a kickoff choice in heavy wind can swing a near-coin-flip from 43% to 57% in a handful of snaps. It’s why the semis and final look familiar in our most common runs, yet upsets remain live more often than fans expect.

How this aligns with the national conversation

One external lens is worth noting. In their preseason staff predictions, ESPN writers broadly cluster around Penn State and Texas as top seeds and prime title threats, with Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Miami rounding out the inner circle. Our bracket doesn’t merely echo that consensus; it quantifies the degree of separation and pinpoints where the path is smoothest or most treacherous for each contender. (ESPN.com)

The AccuScore takeaway

If you’re looking for a single headline, here it is: Penn State enters 2025 with the best median path to a national title, and Texas remains the most credible foil. The first round should be chaotic at the margins—watch Notre Dame’s composure, Ohio State’s explosives and Alabama’s short-yardage package—but the quarterfinals will decide the bracket’s tone, because that is where the favorites stop getting mechanical edges and start playing within true variance bands.

From there, our simulations favor Texas to arrive first to the final and Penn State to win once it gets there. Everything else—the Irish’s chance to crash the party, Georgia’s habit of suffocating coin flips, Kansas State’s ability to turn mistakes into points—adds texture to a tournament that, by design, resists certainty. That’s the beauty of the expanded playoff, and that’s why we run the numbers.