Texas State is a heavy favorite winning 79.0% of simulations over South Alabama. Nate Yarnell is averaging 320.0 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per simulation and Lincoln Pare is projected for 151.0 rushing yards and a 0.0% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 21.0% of simulations where South Alabama wins, Zach Pyron averages 2.18 TD passes vs 0.45 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.2 TDs to 0.68 interceptions. Braylon McReynolds averages 143.0 rushing yards and 1.39 rushing TDs when South Alabama wins and 132.0 yards and 0.78 TDs in losses. Texas State has a 31.0% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 87.0% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TXST -9.5 --- Over/Under line is 62.5
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.
| South Alabama | ATS RECORD | Texas State | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 4-6-0 | All Games | 3-7-0 | No Edge |
| Road + Neutral Field | 20-30-00 | Home Games | 1-3-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 3-1-0 | When Favored | 1-5-0 | No Edge |
| Conference Opp | 1-5-0 | Conference Opp | 0-5-0 | No Edge |
| Opp Under .500 | 1-5-0 | Opp Under .500 | 1-4-0 | No Edge |
LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.
| South Alabama | ATS RECORD | Texas State | ATS RECORD | ATS EDGE |
|---|
| All Games | 5-8-0 | All Games | 6-6-0 | No Edge |
| Road + Neutral Field | 50-30-00 | Home Games | 1-6-0 | No Edge |
| When Underdog | 5-1-0 | When Favored | 2-6-0 | No Edge |
| Conference Opp | 2-5-0 | Conference Opp | 3-3-0 | No Edge |
| Opp .500+ Record | 1-5-0 | Opp Under .500 | 3-2-0 | No Edge |
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
| South Alabama | O-U-P RECORD | Texas State | O-U-P RECORD | O-U EDGE |
|---|
| All Totals (O-U-P) | 6-4-0 | All Totals (O-U-P) | 6-4-0 | OVER |
| On Road | 2-3-0 | At Home | 3-1-0 | OVER |
| All Totals Last Season | 8-3-0 | All Totals Last Season | 8-2-1 | OVER |
| On Road Last Season | 3-3-0 | At Home Last Season | 5-1-1 | OVER |
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