AS Roma
Real Madrid
Win Probability
Moneyline
ROM
23.5% win prob
Moneyline
RMA
54.3% win prob
Roma travels to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for a Champions League clash where Real Madrid holds a clear advantage in the simulation's assessment. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Roma averaging 1.7 goals and Real Madrid 2.6, making the most likely outcome a 2–1 home victory. AccuScore's historical record on similarly shaped matchups—where the home side sits in the 50–60% win-probability range—stands at 45% over 4,086 games, suggesting caution against backing the favourite. For Roma to upset that lean, the visitors would need to breach Real Madrid's defence more efficiently than the simulations account for, or suppress the hosts' attack beyond the projected 2.6 goals.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid 54% to win, AS Roma 24%, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 54%, with a 22% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Real Madrid a 54% chance of beating AS Roma, with 24% for AS Roma and 22% for a draw. Real Madrid are at home and favoured on these numbers.