December 20, 2025 6:28 AM EST

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Dallas Stars 12/21/2025

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The Dallas Stars are solid 57.7 percent favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Stars are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +1 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 26 shots on goal vs 25 shots for the Maple Leafs. The Stars goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 89.6% compared to the Maple Leafs goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 88.2%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Dennis Hildeby 23, Jake Oettinger 22 SHOTS: Auston Matthews 4.5, Mikko Rantanen 3 GOALS: William Nylander 0.54, Mikko Rantanen 0.56 PTS: Auston Matthews has a 57% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Mikko Rantanen has a 58% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. NEITHER TEAM HAS UNITS EDGE

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDDallas StarsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road5-8, 38% -255Record at Home11-6, 65% 104Dallas Stars
VS Dallas Stars0-0 No GamesVS Toronto Maple Leafs0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better5-10, 33% -505vs Team .500 or Better8-6, 57% 41Dallas Stars
Record As Road Underdog4-4, 50% 65Record As Home Favorite10-6, 62% 12Toronto Maple Leafs
After 1 or More Days Off12-16, 43% -1850After 1 or More Days Off19-12, 61% -1981Toronto Maple Leafs

PAST 30 DAYS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDDallas StarsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-3, 57% 165Record at Home5-1, 83% 199Dallas Stars
VS Dallas Stars0-0 No GamesVS Toronto Maple Leafs0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better3-6, 33% -246vs Team Under .5008-1, 89% 488Dallas Stars
Record As Road Underdog4-3, 57% 165Record As Home Favorite5-1, 83% 199Dallas Stars
After 1 or More Days Off5-7, 42% -472After 1 or More Days Off9-4, 69% -785Toronto Maple Leafs

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDDallas StarsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD8-5, 62% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME11-8, 58% OverN/A
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-4, 43% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-4, 60% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON13-15, 46% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON12-15, 44% OverOVER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home16-10, 62% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road17-13, 57% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 8-5, 62% +293 Dallas Stars Home Games: 5-12, 29% -744 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 3-4, 43% -137 Dallas Stars Home Games: 2-4, 33% -275

MONEY LINE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 7-6, 54% +43 Dallas Stars Home Games: 9-8, 53% +-247 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 2-5, 29% -373 Dallas Stars Home Games: 4-2, 67% +27

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 5-8, 38% -345 Dallas Stars Home Games: 8-9, 47% -172 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 4-3, 57% + 64 Dallas Stars Home Games: 4-2, 67% + 164

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