March 16, 2026 9:18 AM EST

NHL: New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs 3/17/2026

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The New York Islanders are solid 59 percent favorites over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Islanders are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +6 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 32 shots on goal vs 27 shots for the Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 90.3% compared to the Islanders goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 90%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Ilya Sorokin 24, Dennis Hildeby 29 SHOTS: Bo Horvat 3.5, Auston Matthews 3.9 GOALS: Bo Horvat 0.65, Matthew Knies 0.53 PTS: Mathew Barzal has a 53% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Auston Matthews has a 60% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: New York Islanders

New York IslandersRECORDToronto Maple LeafsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road19-17, 53% 515Record at Home17-18, 49% -563New York Islanders
VS Toronto Maple Leafs1-0, 100% 90VS New York Islanders0-1, 0% -100New York Islanders
vs Team Under .50017-16, 52% -2vs Team .500 or Better16-26, 38% -948New York Islanders
Record as Road Favorite4-5, 44% -205Record as Home Underdog4-7, 36% -327New York Islanders
After 1 or More Days Off29-26, 53% -1188After 1 or More Days Off24-32, 43% -3775New York Islanders

PAST 30 DAYS

New York IslandersRECORDToronto Maple LeafsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-2, 67% 188Record at Home1-3, 25% -208New York Islanders
VS Toronto Maple Leafs0-0 No GamesVS New York Islanders0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5003-2, 60% 97vs Team .500 or Better1-5, 17% -408New York Islanders
Record as Road Favorite2-1, 67% 54Record as Home Underdog1-2, 33% -108New York Islanders
After 1 or More Days Off4-2, 67% -120After 1 or More Days Off1-7, 12% -792New York Islanders

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York IslandersRECORDToronto Maple LeafsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD15-21, 42% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME23-10, 70% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-2, 67% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-2, 71% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON12-24, 33% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON13-15, 46% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home26-23, 53% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road36-17, 68% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - New York Islanders Road Games: 19-17, 53% +262 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 16-19, 46% -398 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Islanders Road Games: 3-3, 50% -80 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 2-2, 50% -1

MONEY LINE - New York Islanders Road Games: 18-18, 50% -306 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 20-15, 57% 39 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Islanders Road Games: 4-2, 67% +174 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 3-1, 75% +168

OVER-UNDER RECORD - New York Islanders Road Games: 26-10, 72% + 1366 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 14-21, 40% -826 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Islanders Road Games: 3-3, 50% -27 Toronto Maple Leafs Home Games: 2-2, 50% -18

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