March 20, 2026 5:53 AM EST

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Calgary Flames 3/22/2026

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are heavy 66.7 percent favorites over the Calgary Flames. The Lightning are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +3 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 29 shots on goal vs 26 shots for the Flames. The Lightning goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 92.5% compared to the Flames goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 90.4%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Andrei Vasilevskiy 24, Dustin Wolf 26 SHOTS: Nikita Kucherov 3.7, Blake Coleman 2.7 GOALS: Nikita Kucherov 0.42, Connor Zary 0.25 PTS: Nikita Kucherov has a 60% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Blake Coleman has a 40% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDCalgary FlamesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road21-13, 62% 455Record at Home16-16, 50% -43Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Calgary Flames1-0, 100% 64VS Tampa Bay Lightning0-1, 0% -100Tampa Bay Lightning
vs Team Under .50023-9, 72% 742vs Team .500 or Better11-19, 37% -693Tampa Bay Lightning
Record as Road Favorite12-10, 55% -172Record as Home Underdog8-8, 50% 105Calgary Flames
After 1 or More Days Off35-19, 65% -3512After 1 or More Days Off23-36, 39% -2604Calgary Flames

PAST 30 DAYS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDCalgary FlamesRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road2-4, 33% -269Record at Home1-2, 33% -57Calgary Flames
VS Calgary Flames0-0 No GamesVS Tampa Bay Lightning0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5004-1, 80% 139vs Team Under .5001-3, 25% -193Tampa Bay Lightning
Record as Road Favorite2-3, 40% -169Record as Home Underdog1-2, 33% -57Calgary Flames
After 1 or More Days Off4-5, 44% -739After 1 or More Days Off3-6, 33% -202Calgary Flames

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDCalgary FlamesRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD20-14, 59% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-16, 54% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-1, 83% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-5, 38% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON18-18, 50% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON9-17, 35% OverOVER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home32-19, 63% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road30-22, 58% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 22-12, 65% -221 Calgary Flames Home Games: 18-14, 56% +352 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 3-3, 50% +51 Calgary Flames Home Games: 3-0, 100% +292

MONEY LINE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 23-11, 68% +788 Calgary Flames Home Games: 15-16, 48% +-220 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 4-2, 67% +139 Calgary Flames Home Games: 2-1, 67% +49

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 16-18, 47% -344 Calgary Flames Home Games: 15-17, 47% -335 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 1-5, 17% -409 Calgary Flames Home Games: 1-2, 33% -109

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