March 27, 2026 8:33 AM EST

NHL: Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning 3/28/2026

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are solid 56.5 percent favorites over the Ottawa Senators. The Lightning are favored despite being projected for 25 shots on goal vs 30 shots for the Senators. The Lightning goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 91.8% compared to the Senators goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 88.7%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Leevi Merilainen 22, Andrei Vasilevskiy 28 SHOTS: Brady Tkachuk 4.1, Nikita Kucherov 3.7 GOALS: Shane Pinto 0.31, Brandon Hagel 0.49 PTS: Tim Stutzle has a 41% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Nikita Kucherov has a 68% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Tampa Bay Lightning

Ottawa SenatorsRECORDTampa Bay LightningRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road18-17, 51% -62Record at Home20-12, 62% 69Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Tampa Bay Lightning1-0, 100% 130VS Ottawa Senators0-1, 0% -100Ottawa Senators
vs Team .500 or Better15-19, 44% -621vs Team .500 or Better18-16, 53% -218Tampa Bay Lightning
Record As Road Underdog7-12, 37% -418Record As Home Favorite18-12, 60% -139Tampa Bay Lightning
After 1 or More Days Off29-29, 50% -3982After 1 or More Days Off37-19, 66% -3624Tampa Bay Lightning

PAST 30 DAYS

Ottawa SenatorsRECORDTampa Bay LightningRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-2, 67% 83Record at Home2-3, 40% -192Ottawa Senators
VS Tampa Bay Lightning0-0 No GamesVS Ottawa Senators0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5006-2, 75% 176vs Team .500 or Better0-6, 0% -600Ottawa Senators
Record As Road Underdog0-1, 0% -100Record As Home Favorite2-3, 40% -192Ottawa Senators
After 1 or More Days Off6-4, 60% -786After 1 or More Days Off6-5, 55% -851Ottawa Senators

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Ottawa SenatorsRECORDTampa Bay LightningRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD21-14, 60% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME23-14, 62% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-3, 50% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS8-1, 89% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON14-11, 56% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON18-18, 50% OverOVER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home28-23, 55% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road34-19, 64% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 18-17, 51% -275 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 19-13, 59% +343 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 2-4, 33% -308 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 2-3, 40% +69

MONEY LINE - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 21-14, 60% +251 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 19-13, 59% +-103 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 4-2, 67% +87 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 2-3, 40% -192

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 16-19, 46% -444 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 13-19, 41% -717 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Ottawa Senators Road Games: 3-3, 50% -27 Tampa Bay Lightning Home Games: 4-1, 80% + 264

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