April 30, 2025 5:19 AM EST

NHL: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators 5/1/2025

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are solid 56 percent favorites over the Ottawa Senators. The Maple Leafs are favored despite being projected for 25 shots on goal vs 29 shots for the Senators. The Maple Leafs goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 91.5% compared to the Senators goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 89%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Anthony Stolarz 26, Linus Ullmark 22 SHOTS: Auston Matthews 4.2, Brady Tkachuk 4.4 GOALS: William Nylander 0.52, Brady Tkachuk 0.34 PTS: Mitch Marner has a 62% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Tim Stutzle has a 50% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Ottawa Senators

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road26-17, 60% 639Record at Home28-15, 65% 713Ottawa Senators
VS Ottawa Senators3-5, 38% -284VS Toronto Maple Leafs5-3, 62% 288Ottawa Senators
vs Team .500 or Better19-19, 50% -10vs Team .500 or Better17-20, 46% -123Toronto Maple Leafs
Record As Road Underdog11-8, 58% 490Record As Home Favorite20-10, 67% 341Toronto Maple Leafs
After 1 or More Days Off45-26, 63% -4116After 1 or More Days Off39-34, 53% -3250Ottawa Senators

PAST 30 DAYS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-2, 67% 210Record at Home7-3, 70% 266Ottawa Senators
VS Ottawa Senators3-2, 60% 16VS Toronto Maple Leafs2-3, 40% -82Toronto Maple Leafs
vs Team .500 or Better7-2, 78% 246vs Team .500 or Better4-6, 40% -263Toronto Maple Leafs
Record As Road Underdog2-2, 50% 59Record As Home Favorite5-2, 71% 145Ottawa Senators
After 1 or More Days Off8-3, 73% -830After 1 or More Days Off7-6, 54% -536Ottawa Senators

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Toronto Maple LeafsRECORDOttawa SenatorsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD25-18, 58% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-25, 43% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS2-4, 33% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS2-2, 50% OverN/A
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON13-15, 46% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON14-11, 56% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home32-31, 51% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road31-37, 46% OVERUNDER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 23-20, 53% -268 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 20-23, 47% -234 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 2-4, 33% -275 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 4-6, 40% -53

MONEY LINE - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 22-21, 51% -344 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 23-20, 53% +-347 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 2-4, 33% -234 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 4-6, 40% -337

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 22-21, 51% -98 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 17-26, 40% -1053 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Toronto Maple Leafs Road Games: 4-2, 67% + 164 Ottawa Senators Home Games: 4-6, 40% -236

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