May 01, 2026 1:33 PM EST

NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens 5/1/2026

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The Montreal Canadiens are solid 57.7 percent favorites over the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Canadiens are favored despite being projected for 23 shots on goal vs 24 shots for the Lightning. The Canadiens goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 91.9% compared to the Lightning goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 90.3%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Andrei Vasilevskiy 21, Jakub Dobes 22 SHOTS: Nikita Kucherov 3.8, Cole Caufield 3.5 GOALS: Jake Guentzel 0.32, Cole Caufield 0.4 PTS: Nikita Kucherov has a 58% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Nick Suzuki has a 50% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Montreal Canadiens

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road25-18, 58% 233Record at Home25-18, 58% 182Tampa Bay Lightning
VS Montreal Canadiens4-5, 44% -220VS Tampa Bay Lightning5-4, 56% 227Montreal Canadiens
vs Team .500 or Better29-20, 59% 121vs Team .500 or Better25-24, 51% 221Montreal Canadiens
Record as Road Favorite16-15, 52% -394Record as Home Underdog8-3, 73% 501Montreal Canadiens
After 1 or More Days Off45-27, 62% -4940After 1 or More Days Off42-29, 59% -3128Montreal Canadiens

PAST 30 DAYS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road2-4, 33% -234Record at Home3-3, 50% -49Montreal Canadiens
VS Montreal Canadiens2-4, 33% -254VS Tampa Bay Lightning4-2, 67% 286Montreal Canadiens
vs Team .500 or Better2-6, 25% -454vs Team .500 or Better2-2, 50% -67Montreal Canadiens
Record as Road Favorite2-4, 33% -234Record as Home Underdog2-1, 67% 98Montreal Canadiens
After 1 or More Days Off6-6, 50% -992After 1 or More Days Off7-4, 64% -309Montreal Canadiens

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Tampa Bay LightningRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD24-19, 56% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME28-16, 64% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS1-5, 17% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-4, 43% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON18-18, 50% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON16-19, 46% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home41-30, 58% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road46-26, 64% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 25-18, 58% -624 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 22-21, 51% +65 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 2-4, 33% -203 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 4-2, 67% +201

MONEY LINE - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 27-16, 63% +597 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 24-19, 56% 231 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 2-4, 33% -203 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 4-2, 67% +201

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 20-23, 47% -480 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 21-22, 49% -289 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Tampa Bay Lightning Road Games: 4-2, 67% + 164 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 5-1, 83% + 355

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