May 16, 2026 3:39 AM EST

NHL: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens 5/16/2026

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The Montreal Canadiens are slight 51.7 percent favorites over the Buffalo Sabres. The Canadiens are favored by AccuScore simulations partly because they have a +1 edge in shots on goal and are projected for 27 shots on goal vs 25 shots for the Sabres. The Sabres goalie(s) have the edge in save percentage at 89.6% compared to the Canadiens goalie(s) who have a forecasted save percentage of 89.4%. KEY PLAYER STATISTICAL DATA --- SAVES: Alex Lyon 24, Jakub Dobes 23 SHOTS: Tage Thompson 3.9, Cole Caufield 3.8 GOALS: Tage Thompson 0.53, Cole Caufield 0.55 PTS: Tage Thompson has a 57% chance of scoring at least 1 point and Nick Suzuki has a 52% chance of 1+PTs

' We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Montreal Canadiens

Buffalo SabresRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road28-18, 61% 1086Record at Home26-20, 57% 53Buffalo Sabres
VS Montreal Canadiens4-5, 44% -118VS Buffalo Sabres5-4, 56% 64Montreal Canadiens
vs Team .500 or Better30-26, 54% 358vs Team .500 or Better31-27, 53% 582Montreal Canadiens
Record As Road Underdog18-17, 51% 396Record As Home Favorite18-16, 53% -348Buffalo Sabres
After 1 or More Days Off47-33, 59% -4148After 1 or More Days Off46-32, 59% -3153Montreal Canadiens

PAST 30 DAYS

Buffalo SabresRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road4-1, 80% 290Record at Home2-3, 40% -128Buffalo Sabres
VS Montreal Canadiens2-3, 40% -105VS Buffalo Sabres3-2, 60% 82Montreal Canadiens
vs Team .500 or Better2-3, 40% -105vs Team Under .5004-3, 57% 224Montreal Canadiens
Record As Road Underdog3-1, 75% 203Record As Home Favorite1-1, 50% -29Buffalo Sabres
After 1 or More Days Off6-5, 55% -804After 1 or More Days Off7-5, 58% +164Montreal Canadiens

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Buffalo SabresRECORDMontreal CanadiensRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD25-21, 54% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME31-17, 65% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS2-3, 40% OverHOME OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS4-3, 57% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON16-12, 57% OverHOME OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON16-19, 46% OverUNDER
Opp Averages >2.8 G at Home43-34, 56% OVEROpp Averages >2.8 G on Road50-29, 63% OVEROVER

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every NHL game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +2,000 units of profit since February. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 27-19, 59% +308 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 23-23, 50% -19 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 4-1, 80% +16 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 2-3, 40% -83

MONEY LINE - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 27-19, 59% +315 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 25-21, 54% 147 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 4-1, 80% +290 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 2-3, 40% -83

OVER-UNDER RECORD - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 26-20, 57% + 366 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 23-23, 50% -207 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Buffalo Sabres Road Games: 2-3, 40% -118 Montreal Canadiens Home Games: 4-1, 80% + 264

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