The MLB trade deadline and all the craziness that comes with it is officially in the books. It did not disappoint, as plenty of big names changed teams, some changing leagues. Fantasy
owners are left wondering what these moves mean for their players. Don’t worry, I got you covered.
Quick side note: Many players like Jonathan Lucroy and Matt Moore are going to be on waivers in AL and NL-only leagues. Make sure to use your top waiver wire claims or remaining FAAB to secure them. If it is open waivers, well you may have to wake up early Tuesday morning to nab them.
Jonathan Lucroy, Texas Rangers
I wrote last week that a trade could hurt Lucroy’s value, as Miller Park was a very hitter friendly confine. As a member of the Brewers, he hit .305 with nine homers, and a .246 ISO at home, compared to hitting .292 with four homers and a .123 ISO on the road. While Miller Park ranks third in the league in home runs, Global Life Park in Arlington ranks 11th. Global Life Park also ranks fourth in the MLB in runs, according to ESPN’s Park Factors. He will also be joining a much better lineup that should lead to an increase in both runs and RBIs. Add in the fact that he could DH on days where he doesn’t catch, and that could lead to extra at bats. Lucroy’s value only increases by this move as he closes the gap on Buster Posey for the best Fantasy catcher.
Jay Bruce, New York Mets
The move to the Mets may hurt Bruce’s value a bit. He has been great this season, batting .265, which is his
highest average since 2010. He also has 25 homers and is on pace for a career best. However, his .295 ISO is the highest of his career, which could mean he is bound for some regression. Not only that, but Great American Ballpark ranked sixth in homers, while Citi Field is ninth. Of Bruce’s 25 homers, five are “no doubters,” while three are “lucky,” which would put him in a tie for the second in that category according to ESPN home run tracker. While he hit for a higher average on the road with the Reds, 14 of his 25 homers came at home. Owners could sit tight, but I would not be against selling him high.
Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants
Matt Moore is one of the bigger winners from all the deadline deals. Not only does he leave the AL, but he will also be pitching in one of the friendliest confines in all of baseball. Add in the fact that the Giants rank third in Fangraphs Def rating with a mark of 30.8. That is a significant upgrade from the Rays who rank 18th with a mark of -5.1. On the season, Moore has a 4.08 ERA and a 4.49 FIP; however, he was much better as of late, as he has a 2.41 ERA in July. His value is certainly on the rise. However, given the beneficial move and the hot month, his value may never be higher. He is a great sell high candidate, if owners can sell high enough.
Carlos Beltran, Texas Rangers
As a member of the Yankees, Beltran played better at home batting .302 with 14 homers and a .296 ISO. On the road, he hit .306 with eight homers and a .189 ISO. However, he landed in a hitter-friendly environment and will have a vastly improved lineup around him. He is projected to hit in the middle of the Rangers lineup, and while he is 39 years old, I am much more hesitant to sell high now than I was just a week ago. However, if Beltran shows signs of slowing down, owners should pull the trigger on a trade quicker than with most players.
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers
I wrote last week that a move from Oakland would only help Hill, since he has pitched to a 3.45 ERA, 3.20 FIP and a 25 percent strikeout rate at home. But on the road he has been otherworldly, pitching to a 1.41 ERA, 2.06 FIP with a 32 percent strikeout rate. Not only that, but the A’s rate as the worst defense team in baseball, by a wide margin too. The Dodgers rank 11th in the league in Fangraphs Def rating with a mark of 14.6, compared to the A’s who sit at -47.1. To put that in perspective, the next worst mark is the Padres at -27. If and when Hill returns from his blister, his value will trend upwards, pretty heavily. Owners should try to buy now, especially if his current owners are frustrated that he just landed on the DL.
Josh Reddick, Los Angeles Dodgers
Reddick joins a very crowded Dodgers outfield, which currently looks like it will shape up with Howie Kendrick in left, Joc Pederson in center and Reddick in right. Dodger Stadium is not a hitter-friendly ballpark, but it is no worse than the Oakland Coliseum. With the A’s this season, Reddick hit much better on the road, batting .326 with five homers and a .159 ISO, compared to hitting .261 with three homers and a .144 ISO at home. His value gets a slight increase. But wait; did you notice a name that did not appear in the Dodgers outfield? That is right, Yasiel Puig is not only no longer projected to start for the Dodgers, but reports indicate that he will be sent down to the minors on Tuesday. Puig has struggled this season hitting just .260 with seven homers. He has a career low ISO and hard hit rate this season. Despite that, there is a good chance that he either will be available on the waiver wire or could be had at dirt-cheap. Maybe I am a sucker for upside, but I would advise owners take a flier on Puig.
Lewis Brinson/Louis Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers
These two will start in the minors, but should be owned in all dynasty and even deep keeper leagues. Brinson is a top outfield prospect that now has a much quicker path to the majors. While he has struggled to hit for average this season, it has never been an issue for him in the past. He also has the ability to pick up double-digit homers and steals. Do not be surprised if he is a September call up. As for Ortiz, he is just 20-years-old, but has already reached Double-A, pitching to a 4.08 ERA and 3.32 FIP. His strikeouts are also down in a small sample size in Double-A. Still, he has thrived at every level in the minors and could be up by 2017.
Francisco Liriano, Toronto Blue Jays
There is not much to like about this trade. Liriano has been awful this season, pitching to a 5.46 ERA with a 5.19 FIP. Not only that, but his strikeout rate has dropped from 26.5 percent last season to 22.2 percent, while his swinging strike rate dropped from 14.3 percent last year to just 10.9 in 2016. Liriano’s hard hit rate is off the charts at 35 percent. Prior to that, his career high mark was 29.8 percent in 2013. He has also pitched better at home as a member of the Pirates, pitching to a 4.42 ERA and 4.30 FIP, while he has a 6.59 ERA and 6.32 FIP on the road. Add in the fact that he will now be in the AL, and is going to a much friendlier hitter’s park. His value takes a hit and owners should really consider dropping him.
Jeremy Jeffres, Texas Rangers
Jeffres joins a talented Rangers bullpen that includes Sam Dyson, Jake Diekman, Keone Kela and Matt Bush. He will head to the Rangers and set up for Dyson. This is unfortunate for Fantasy owners, as he has been great, picking up 27 saves and blowing just one, while pitching to a 2.22 ERA and a 3.16 FIP. He could be dropped in regular mixed leagues. However, Tyler Thornburg should jump in as the Brewers closer. He has pitched to a 2.32 ERA, with a 2.95 FIP, while averaging 12.45 K/9 and having a 0.98 WHIP. Thornburg should be added in all leagues.
Quick Hits:
- Wil Smith: Smith has pitched well, currently sporting a 3.68 ERA, 4.27 FIP and averaging 9 K/9. Expect him to come into the setup role initially, but he could close if Santiago Casilla was to struggle.
- Brandon Guyer: Guyer provides the Indians with a great bench bat and could platoon with Lonnie Chisenhall or Tyler Naquin in the outfield. He crushes lefties, as he has batted .338 with a .246 ISO against them.
- Steve Pearce: Pearce will provide the Orioles with a solid bat that can play a multitude of positions. Pearce has batted .309 with 10 homers and a .211 ISO. He will move to a friendlier ballpark. However, the limited playing time makes him viable only in AL only leagues.
- Dilson Herrera: Herrera is an interesting prospect that was hitting .276 with 13 homers, albeit in the hitter friendly PCL. The Reds do not appear to have an opening on the infield. If he were called up, he would be worth an NL-only flier.
- Jon Niese: Niese has really struggled with Pittsburgh this season. He will join the Mets bullpen, but could rejoin rotation if Logan Verrett struggles or someone in the rotation got hurt. He would be NL-only option if so.
- Mike Bolsinger: He will provide starting/relief pitcher depth for the Blue Jays.
- Scott Feldman: Will pitch out of the pen for the Blue Jays. No Fantasy value here if so. However, he could join rotation at some point.
- Hector Santiago: Santiago will slide into the Twins rotation. He has pitched to a 4.25 ERA, 5.03 FIP and a 7.98 K/9 this season. However, in July he pitched to a 1.78 ERA. He is worth a flier in AL-only formats and could be scouted in deeper mixed formats.
- Joe Smith: Will provide depth for a suddenly very deep Cubs bullpen.
- Ricky Nolasco: After a hot start, Nolasco reminded us of who he truly is. He has posted an ERA of 4.50 or higher in every month since April. Do not add him.
- Ivan Nova: Nova will join the Pirates rotation, although it is worth pointing out that Tyler Glasnow could replace either him or Ryan Vogelsong when he returns. He is worth a flier in NL-only formats. It leaves a spot in the Yankees rotation open, which could lead to Luis Severino.
All stats entering Monday, August 1.
Make sure to follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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