LeBron James put in a legendary performance in Boston to lead Miami to a win in Game 6. Now the Heat get Game 7 at home with a berth into the NBA Finals on the line. The Heat are winning 71% of simulations against the Celtics by an average score of 95 - 89. Click here for the full Game Forecast with simulated box score. We also have full projections for player propositions.
Here are some statistical findings from our 10,000 simulations:
- There is a 21.4% chance LeBron James scores 40 or more points. If he does the Heat are 84% favorites.
- If Boston holds James to less than 45% from the field AND Paul Pierce hits better than 45% from the field, Boston is the slight 51.6% favorite.
- Even if Rajon Rondo has a triple double the Heat are still 56.7% favorites.
- If Kevin Garnett dominates with 20+ points, 12+ rebounds, AND Boston hits at least 7 three-pointers then Boston is the 53.2% favorite.
- Even if James and Wade are the only double digit scorers for the Heat Miami is still favored to win 61.3%.
- If Pierce, Garnett, and Ray Allen all score at least 20 points then Boston has a 50% chance.
- If James, Wade, and Chris Bosh all score at least 20 points then Miami is the 86% favorite.
- There is just a 2% chance that Pierce scores 30+ points and James scores under 25, but if it happens then Boston is the 55% favorite.
