September 17, 2025 4:31 AM EST

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars 09/21/2025

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Expect a close game with the Houston Texans winning 55.0% of simulations, and the Jacksonville Jaguars 45.0% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Houston Texans commit fewer turnovers in 69.0% of simulations and they go on to win 69.0% when they take care of the ball. The Jacksonville Jaguars wins 77.0% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Nick Chubb is averaging 55.0 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (33.0% chance) then he helps his team win 78%. Travis Etienne Jr. is averaging 100.0 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27.0% chance) then he helps his team win 72%.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games 0-2-0All Games 1-1-0No Edge
Road Games 00-10-00Home Games 1-0-0Jacksonville Jaguars
When Underdog 0-1-0When Favored 1-0-0Jacksonville Jaguars
Division Opp 0-0-0Division Opp 0-0-0No Edge
Opp .500+ Record 0-1-0Opp Under .500 0-0-0No Edge

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Houston TexansATS RECORDJacksonville JaguarsATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games 9-8-2All Games 9-6-2No Edge
Road Games 50-40-10Home Games 4-2-0 No Edge
When Underdog 5-3-1When Favored 2-1-1No Edge
Division Opp 1-4-1Division Opp 4-0-2Jacksonville Jaguars
Opp Under .500 53-62-14Opp .500+ Record 63-42-18No Edge

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Houston TexansO-U-P RECORDJacksonville JaguarsO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P) 0-2-0All Totals (O-U-P) 1-1-0UNDER
On Road 0-1-0At Home 0-1-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season 7-12-0All Totals Last Season 9-8-0UNDER
On Road Last Season 5-5-0At Home Last Season 4-4-0No Edge

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