Written by Max Meyer

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College Football Week 2 Preview
#18 Oklahoma St vs Arizona

Four Things You Need To Know

1. This isn’t the same Oklahoma State offense as last season, but it’s still quite good
With Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon gone to the NFL, it may have been surprising to see the size of Oklahoma State’s Week 1 spread. Despite being favored by 67.5 points (the biggest spread in college football history) Oklahoma State comfortably covered by winning 84-0 over Savannah State. In true freshman Wes Lunt’s first game it was mostly the running game that took control. The two biggest playmakers for the Cowboys at running back last season were Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith, and they got off to a hot start Week 1. The Cowboy duo combined for 144 yards on just 11 carries with five touchdowns. The entire Cowboys’ running game accumulated almost 400 rushing yards to go along with nine rushing touchdowns. AccuScore simulations predict big things again for Randle and Smith against Arizona’s run defense. The duo is projected to have over 140 yards rushing with a per carry average of over six yards.

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2. Oklahoma State doesn’t know who their top wide receiver is yet
The biggest question for this Cowboys’ offense is still who can replace Blackmon as the number one receiver. The passing game figures to be a much bigger factor against Arizona than it was last week. According to AccuScore simulations, Wes Lunt is projected to throw for 320 passing yards and a top target should emerge naturally with that amount of passing yards projected.

AccuScore likes senior wide receiver Tracy Moore to emerge as simulations project him to have about four catches and 60 yards. He is the top returning receiver for the Cowboys thanks to his 45 catches for 672 yards and four touchdowns last season. However, Moore was suspended Week 1 due to repeated trouble with the law. Additionally, Oklahoma St. coach Mike Gundy said he was unsure if Moore would start the game against Arizona.

Other Cowboy wide receivers expect to make an impact throughout the entire season include returners Josh Stewart and Isiah Anderson along with junior college transfer Blake Jackson. At least one of these four will need to step up and emerge as a top target if the Cowboys want to continue with their success.

3. The key for Arizona’s offense is to limit turnovers
The Wildcats are facing an Oklahoma State defense that led the nation in turnovers forced last season. Last weekend Arizona’s offense had mixed results. While Arizona had over 600 yards of total offense, they scored only 24 points and needed overtime to beat Toledo at home. The reason why that game was so close is because of mistakes which included an interception, two fumbles lost, and two missed field goals. The goal of an offense is to score points not simply accumulate yardage, something Arizona did not do effectively last week.

Arizona will need to continue their success in the passing game from last week if they want to have any chance of competing with Oklahoma State. AccuScore simulations forecast senior quarterback Matt Scott to continue his hot streak by throwing for 369 yards along with 48 rushing yards. Scott accounted for 461 total yards last week which was second best in the nation. The goal this week for Scott will be to convert his high yardage total into more points.

4. Arizona’s new defense will have trouble
Along with Rodriguez, Arizona also hired new defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel. Casteel has implemented a 3-3-5 base defense in order to combat the lack of depth in front six. Two of Arizona’s top defensive players reside in the secondary with junior cornerback Shaquille Richardson and junior safety Marquis Flowers. The secondary however will struggle if the front cannot generate a pass rush. No returning player had more than one sack in 2011. Expect Oklahoma State’s veteran offensive line to manhandle the youth up front for Arizona which should generate a lot of holes for the aforementioned studs at running back for the Cowboys.

Free Betting Pick: Oklahoma St. (-10.5) OVER Arizona
The Cowboys have handily beaten the Wildcats the past two seasons. Oklahoma St. won 36-10 in the 2010 Alamo Bowl and they won again last season 37-14 in Stillwater. While the Tucson home crowd may play a factor, I think this Oklahoma State team is just too experienced and talented for Arizona to handle. AccuScore simulations agree with my pick as Oklahoma State is projected to cover the spread 57.8 percent of the time. Expect a lot of scoring in this game, but for Oklahoma State to pull away easily in the second half.

Final Score: #18 Oklahoma State 45, Arizona 24