By Jonathan Lee

NFC

The “dream team” Eagles are just 1-3 a quarter of the way through the season and are barely clinging to a playoff spot in AccuScore projections.  Philadelphia dropped 14.2 percentage points and is only making the postseason 39 percent of time.  That is still sixth best in the NFC but barely ahead of several contenders bunched closely together.  One of those teams chasing close behind the Eagles is the division rival Cowboys.  Dallas suffered a shocking home Tony-Romo fueled loss and fell 11 percentage points this week.  The Cowboys still make the playoffs in over a third of simulations, but they must avoid bad losses like the one to San Francisco to remain in the mix.  New York took over as the favorites in the competitive NFC East, gaining a whopping 17 percentage points.  The Giants are now winning the division 44.3 percent of the time.  Washington is surprisingly 3-1, but the simulations still don’t quite believe the record.  The Redskins are still projected fourth in the division, making the playoffs 20.5 percent of the time.

The NFC North is the only division in the NFL with two unbeaten teams.  The defending champion Packers were expected to be here, and they, accordingly, are the most likely team to make the playoffs in either conference at nearly 98 percent.  The other unbeaten is upstart Lions who are 64.9 percent likely to reach the postseason.  Detroit hasn’t achieved that goal since 1999 and has averaged just 4.4 wins since that season.  It already has 4 wins in 2011.  Chicago is in a tough spot behind those two teams.  The Bears are a solid team, but Chicago has just a 1.9 percent chance to win the division, meaning they are competing for one of the two Wild Card spots.  Still, that is much better than the Vikings, who are already competing for the top picks of the NFL draft.

The Niners got that impressive comeback win against Dallas, and that shot them up to 80.6 percent likely for playoff spot.  San Francisco is projected to have only the fifth best record in the NFC with 9.2 wins, but it is the third most likely team to make the postseason at 80.6 percent.  That number is almost entirely made up of NFC West wins because of the weakness of that division.  The Cardinals and Seahawks already trail San Francisco by two games in the standings, and combined, the two teams don’t add up to even 20 percent in playoff probability.  The Rams were thought to be possibly contenders in the preseason, but they are winless and are currently one of the worst teams in football.

New Orleans is not a perfect team, but it keeps winning, and that’s all that matters at this point.  The Saints remain in the pole position in the NFC South by a wide margin over the Falcons and Buccaneers.  New Orleans wins the division just about three quarters of the time with Atlanta and Tampa Bay making up the other quarter.  The South was the one division in the NFL where all four teams remained virtually unchanged from last week in the season projections.  Carolina remains exciting to watch with Cam Newton and a rejuvenated Steve Smith, but they are solidly fourth in the South with just a 4 percent shot at the postseason.

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AFC

Just a week after becoming a 50-50 bet for the playoffs, the Bills came crashing back to Earth losing a 14 point lead to the Bengals.  Buffalo dropped 13.8 percentage points in playoff probability this week but, at 3-1, are still exceeding expectations.  New England bounced back from last week’s upset at the hands of those Bills to beat the Raiders.  The Pats are still the most likely playoff team in the AFC at nearly 94 percent.  New York is on the opposite end of the spectrum from New England, getting beat up by the Ravens, and plagued by serious questions on offense.  The Jets dropped nearly 11 percent in playoff probability this week, and New York makes the playoffs in less than a third of simulations.  The Dolphins remain in the lead in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Baltimore exposed Mark Sanchez for the average quarterback our computers believe he is and, as a result, got a big win on Sunday night.  The Ravens are 3-1 now and overtook the Steelers as the favorites to win the AFC North at 50 percent.  The Steelers remain a solid favorite for a playoff spot at 82.1 percent but must now deal with even more injuries to key players (James Harrison, Ben Roethliesberger, offensive line).  The Bengals continue to be feisty behind rookie Andy Dalton, but they are not real contenders just yet, making the playoffs 12.9 percent of the time.  The Browns were thought to be improved this season, but they are projected to finish last in the division after four weeks..

One of the most improved teams this season appears to be Tennessee.  Matt Hasselbeck has had a great rebound season thus far, leading the Titans to a 3-1 record.  Tennessee made the biggest jump this week, gaining 13.2 percentage points, and the Titans are up to 41.8 percent to make the postseason.  Houston got Arian Foster back, and he has helped boost an already terrific offense.  He will be needed as star wideout Andre Johnson suffered a serious injury and will be out an indefinite period of time.  The Texans however are still the favorites to win the South at 70.4 percent.  Jacksonville continues to sink as it transitions to rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert.  Indianapolis put up a fight on Monday night against Tampa, but the Colts remain winless on the season.

San Diego is not playing the best football, but the Chargers have a substantial lead in the projected AFC West standings.  The Chargers gained nine percentage points this week and are making the playoffs 89.1 percent of the time.  That is second best in the conference behind the Patriots.  Oakland was among the biggest gainers last week, but the Raiders made an equivalent drop this week, down to 34.5 percent.  Combined, Denver and Kansas City only win the division 1.3 percent of the time.  Both are serious contenders for the worst record in the NFL.