Written by Rohit Ghosh

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California vs University of Southern California

Thursday night features a pair of in-state Pac-12 rivals going at it on national television, with USC entering the matchup with California as 16.5-point favorites. The total is set at 75.5.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuScore sims

The Trojans head into Thursday night's matchup listed at -800 on the money line, indicating about a 88-to-89 percent chance of winning.

AccuScore simulations, however, have that win probability lower, hovering around 71 percent. Their money line odds according to AccuScore sim data would be approximately -250.

Cal's getting +550 odds on the money line in Vegas, indicating about a 15 percent chance of winning the game. AccuScore would have listed the Golden Bears at +255 based on sim data, providing quite a bit more value on the road team.

Best Bet(s)

Cal covering a 16.5-point spread is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. AccuScore sim data would have listed them as 13-point 'dogs, suggesting an ATS pick. Cal covers a 16.5-point spread in about 57 percent of simulations.

The total combined score stays UNDER 75.5 in about 51 percent of sims, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

Betting Trends

-USC is 4-9 against the spread (ATS) in its last 13 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
-USC is 4-2 straight up (SU) in its last 6 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Trojans' last 6 games. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
-Looking back at the series historically, the total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cal's last 12 games when playing USC. [Supports AccuScore sim data.]
-The favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. [Goes against AccuScore sim data.]

What to Watch For

This game will largely be determined by one of these units out-shining the other: Cal's passing game vs USC's secondary.

Cal's offense had an impressive start last week vs Oregon, jumping out to a 31-14 lead at halftime. The Golden Bears' offense averages 370 passing yards per game, one of the best in the Pac-12. Keep an eye on how much pressure USC can put on Cal QB Davis Webb.

The Trojans' secondary matches up well, though, giving up just 207 yards a match, good for No. 35 in the nation.

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