Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Ole Miss vs Florida State: End to a Wild Week 1
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Florida State and Ole Miss cap off an opening week full of attractive matchups Monday night in a neutral-site game in Orlando, Florida. One side boasts a QB who enters his final year having thrown for 4,042 yards the season prior. The other doesn't have a quarterback for the ages, but rather a back who is a strong pick to win the Heisman Trophy.
Monday night's matchup should live up to all the expectations: a fast-paced contest that should stay competitive until the final drive.
What do the sims say?
AccuScore's spread on this matchup is a bit different than that listed in Vegas. At the time of publication, AccuScore's simulated point spread is about 3 points lower, suggesting a bit more value on Ole Miss.
Ole Miss covers a +5 spread in 57 percent of simulations.
Hot Trend Pick:
The total combined score stays UNDER in over 55 percent of simulations.
Betting Trend: Ole Miss is 9-2 in their last 11 season openers, averaging nearly 50 points per contest in their previous four. Of course FSU is a different kind of beast, but recent data clearly suggests the Rebels enter their seasons prepared.
Here's why Florida St. will win:
Simply put, they just have a better team than the Rebels. The Seminoles' front seven returns more talent and the Rebels offensive line is not nearly talented enough to compete at this stage of the season.
Actually, what's even more indicative of an FSU victory is that all 11 starters on offense returned. Expect the Ole Miss inexperience to lead to turnovers.
Here's why Ole Miss will win:
The receiving corp for Ole Miss is one of a kind and with QB Chad Kelly leading the way, there's no reason the Rebels can't shock FSU Monday night. The biggest argument against Ole Miss is their overall inexperience. Their senior QB, however, just might be [one of] the best player[s] in the country and he'll make up for a lot of that inexperience.
Chad Kelly averages 279 passing yards per sim; if he has a performance with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (31% chance), the Rebels' winning probability goes from about 47 percent to 66 percent.
