Baltimore Orioles
79-82
New York Yankees
93-68
Win Probability
Moneyline
BAL
45.1% win prob
Moneyline
NYY
54.9% win prob
Projected score
2.8 – 3.2
The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Aaron Judge has a 22% chance to hit a home run, while Jeremiah Jackson projects to reach base in 47% of his plate appearances—the gap between those figures points to where this game's outcome likely turns. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 49 wins across 6,338 graded matchups, a cautionary note for any lean this slight. The Orioles would need Jackson to sustain his projection while Judge falls silent to overturn what the model expects.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 BAL
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F5 Total
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F5 NYY
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| Book | Line | NYY | EV | BAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -208 | -22.3% | +170 | +34.6% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +1.5 | -222 | -22.9% | +160 | +31.4% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -196 | -21.8% | +152 | +28.9% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -213 | -22.6% | +170 | +34.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | 5 | -250 | -9.1% | +185 | +10.3% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 5.5 | -189 | -11.9% | +145 | +11.4% |
| Marathon ↗ | 5 | -256 | -9.3% | +181 | +9.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 4.5 | -312 | -9.2% | +225 | +12.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 71.0%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees 55% to beat Baltimore Orioles (45%). Projected score: Baltimore Orioles 2.8, New York Yankees 3.2.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Yankees the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Yankees a 55% chance of beating Baltimore Orioles, against 45% for Baltimore Orioles. New York Yankees are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Baltimore Orioles 2.8, New York Yankees 3.2.