Champions League
PSV
Porto
Win Probability
PSV travels to Porto in a Champions League fixture where the simulation favors the home side clearly. AccuScore's model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on whether PSV can find the net consistently; across 10,000 simulations, the most common outcome was a 1–1 draw at 10%. On games shaped similarly to this one—where the home team sits around 50–60% to win—the model has historically won just 45% of the time over thousands of graded matchups. For Porto to fall short, PSV would need to convert chances at a rate well above what the projections suggest, since the simulation expects just 1.2 goals from the visitors.
| Book | Line | POR | EV | PSV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | POR | EV | PSV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair ↗ | -200 | -9.7% | +450 | +11.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | -200 | -9.7% | +475 | +13.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | -200 | -9.7% | +450 | +11.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | -200 | -9.7% | +500 | +16.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | -189 | -8.9% | +475 | +13.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.75 | -147 | — | — | — |
| Betfair ↗ | 1.5 | -667 | -2.4% | — | — |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | -1.4% | +138 | -4.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | -196 | -3.3% | +133 | -5.5% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | -192 | -3.0% | +133 | -5.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 22.2%
AccuScore's simulation makes Porto 54% to win, PSV 22%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Porto the more likely winner at 54%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Porto a 54% chance of beating PSV, with 22% for PSV and 24% for a draw. Porto are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How PSV and Porto come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.