Villarreal
Valencia
Win Probability
Moneyline
VIL
+117
31.6% win prob
EV -15.7%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+284
31% prob
EV +9.3%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
VAL
+250
37.5% win prob
EV +15.6%
Betano
Villarreal travels to Valencia in a La Liga fixture where the simulation clearly favours the visitors. The model projects a low-scoring affair tilted toward the away side, with a 1–0 Villarreal win as the single most likely outcome across 10,000 simulations. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—away sides favoured at similar strength—stands at 61% over 430 graded matches, though a recent sample of eight comparable fixtures saw the model's side win none. Valencia would need to reverse that pattern and convert the chances that emerge from a compact Villarreal setup to pull off the upset at home.
| Book | VIL | EV | Draw | EV | VAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +116 | -15.9% | +284 | +9.3% | +206 | +7.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +105 | -17.6% | +270 | +7.2% | +210 | +8.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | +110 | -16.8% | +250 | +4.1% | +225 | +10.9% |
| William Hill ↗ | +105 | -17.6% | +250 | +4.1% | +220 | +10.0% |
| Marathon ↗ | +111 | -16.7% | +268 | +6.9% | +236 | +13.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +119 | -23.4% | -145 | +14.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -154 | -21.6% | +110 | +18.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | -20.2% | +110 | +18.8% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3 | +117 | -23.5% | -159 | +12.7% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 3 | +117 | -23.5% | -159 | +12.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 37.5%
La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Valencia 38% to win, Villarreal 32%, with a 31% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Valencia the more likely winner at 38%, with a 31% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Valencia a 38% chance of beating Villarreal, with 32% for Villarreal and 31% for a draw. Valencia are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Villarreal and Valencia come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Valencia have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2014: Villarreal 12, Valencia 7, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on Feb 22, 2026, finished Valencia 1, Villarreal 2.