Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
Win Probability
Moneyline
TOR
+380
8.1% win prob
EV -30.6%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+350
15% prob
EV -15.6%
Betfair
Moneyline
CLB
-159
76.6% win prob
EV +12.4%
Pinnacle
Columbus Crew hosts Toronto in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair centered on Columbus's ability to limit Toronto's attacking chances; across eight similar games in AccuScore's history, the favoured home team won four times. Toronto will need to break through early and capitalize on set pieces to shift momentum, as the projection suggests Columbus will control both possession and the scoreline. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 63% over 2033 graded fixtures, demonstrating the consistency of this lean.
| Book | TOR | EV | Draw | EV | CLB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +362 | -31.3% | +341 | -16.3% | -159 | +12.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +375 | -30.8% | +350 | -15.6% | -175 | +10.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +375 | -30.8% | +340 | -16.3% | -175 | +10.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | +333 | -32.5% | +300 | -19.4% | -161 | +12.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +340 | -32.2% | +310 | -18.6% | -167 | +11.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +119 | -4.3% | -145 | -0.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -250 | -5.3% | +175 | -0.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | -110 | -10.2% | -125 | +2.4% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | +107 | -6.8% | -154 | -2.0% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | +114 | -5.3% | -152 | -1.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 76.6%
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Columbus Crew 77% to win, Toronto FC 8%, with a 15% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Columbus Crew the more likely winner at 77%, with a 15% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Columbus Crew a 77% chance of beating Toronto FC, with 8% for Toronto FC and 15% for a draw. Columbus Crew are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Toronto FC and Columbus Crew come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-D-W-L-L, most recent first).
Columbus Crew have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Toronto FC 6, Columbus Crew 6, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Mar 21, 2026, finished Columbus Crew 1, Toronto FC 2.