Inter Miami
New York Red Bulls
Win Probability
Moneyline
MIA
-108
56.5% win prob
EV +4.4%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+330
21% prob
EV -4.9%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
RBNY
+234
22.5% win prob
EV -12.4%
Pinnacle
Inter Miami travels to New York Red Bulls in a fixture where the simulation clearly favors the visitors. The model projects a high-scoring affair that turns on whether New York's defence can contain Inter Miami's attacking threat—across similar win-probability shapes, the favored side has won 75% of the time, though AccuScore's record on these leans stands at 61% over 431 comparable games. For New York to upset that projection, they would need to significantly tighten their shape and force Inter Miami into a lower-volume offensive game than the 2.5 goals the model expects them to score.
| Book | MIA | EV | Draw | EV | RBNY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -108 | +4.4% | +330 | -4.9% | +234 | -12.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | -118 | +2.2% | +300 | -8.0% | +220 | -14.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | -111 | +3.7% | +310 | -7.0% | +210 | -15.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | -110 | +3.9% | +320 | -5.9% | +220 | -14.0% |
| Kalshi ↗ | -104 | +5.4% | +376 | -0.0% | +257 | -9.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 4 | +104 | -0.4% | -125 | -3.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 4 | -105 | -2.1% | -137 | -4.4% |
| Marathon ↗ | 4 | -108 | -2.6% | -139 | -4.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.5%
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Inter Miami 56% to win, New York Red Bulls 23%, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Inter Miami the more likely winner at 56%, with a 21% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Red Bulls a 23% chance of beating Inter Miami, with 56% for Inter Miami and 21% for a draw. New York Red Bulls are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Inter Miami have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (W-W-W-L-D, most recent first).
New York Red Bulls have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2020: Inter Miami 5, New York Red Bulls 5, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 11, 2026, finished New York Red Bulls 2, Inter Miami 2.