New England
Philadelphia Union
Win Probability
Moneyline
NE
+382
40.7% win prob
EV +48.1%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+351
25% prob
EV +6.8%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
PHI
-167
34.1% win prob
EV -22.7%
Pinnacle
New England travels to face the Philadelphia Union in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. The model projects a tight contest that hinges on whether either side can consistently convert chances, with the most likely outcome a 1–1 draw occurring in one of every ten simulations. AccuScore's record on away-side leans of similar probability shape stands at 56% over 763 graded games. For Philadelphia to pull the upset at home, it would need to shut down New England's attacking opportunities and capitalize on its own—a harder task when the projected goal difference favors the visitors.
| Book | NE | EV | Draw | EV | PHI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +382 | +48.1% | +351 | +6.8% | -167 | -22.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | +350 | +41.6% | +300 | +0.4% | -175 | -23.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +360 | +43.6% | +320 | +2.9% | -175 | -23.2% |
| Marathon ↗ | +365 | +44.6% | +340 | +5.4% | -172 | -23.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +109 | -3.2% | -132 | -1.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | -101 | -5.4% | -143 | -3.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | +104 | -4.3% | -137 | -2.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 25.2%
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes New England 41% to win, Philadelphia Union 34%, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New England the more likely winner at 41%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Philadelphia Union a 34% chance of beating New England, with 41% for New England and 25% for a draw. Philadelphia Union are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
How New England and Philadelphia Union come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New England have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Philadelphia Union have won 4 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 24 times since 2017: New England 6, Philadelphia Union 13, 5 drawn. The last meeting, on May 9, 2026, finished Philadelphia Union 1, New England 2.