Austin FC
Sporting Kansas City
Win Probability
Moneyline
ATX
+197
12.8% win prob
EV -31.0%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+297
20% prob
EV -10.5%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SKC
+117
67.3% win prob
EV +23.0%
Pinnacle
Sporting KC hosts Austin in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair built on Kansas City's ability to limit chances, with Austin's attacking play the primary variable—games shaped like this one have seen AccuScore's favored side win 50% of the time across eight comparable fixtures. For Austin to upset the projection, they would need to break through Sporting KC's setup and create multiple high-quality opportunities in a game the model expects to finish well below the typical combined score.
| Book | ATX | EV | Draw | EV | SKC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +197 | -31.0% | +297 | -10.5% | +117 | +23.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | +190 | -31.4% | +260 | -14.2% | +105 | +19.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +188 | -31.6% | +270 | -13.2% | +110 | +20.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | +195 | -31.1% | +284 | -11.8% | +110 | +20.7% |
| Kalshi ↗ | +212 | -30.0% | +326 | -7.6% | +125 | +25.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +118 | -6.9% | -143 | +1.4% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | +106 | -9.3% | -154 | -0.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | +113 | -7.9% | -149 | +0.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.5%
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Sporting Kansas City 67% to win, Austin FC 13%, with a 20% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Sporting Kansas City the more likely winner at 67%, with a 20% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sporting Kansas City a 67% chance of beating Austin FC, with 13% for Austin FC and 20% for a draw. Sporting Kansas City are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Austin FC and Sporting Kansas City come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Austin FC have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-L-L-D-D, most recent first).
Sporting Kansas City have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (L-L-D-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2021: Austin FC 5, Sporting Kansas City 4, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on May 17, 2026, finished Sporting Kansas City 2, Austin FC 1.