Seattle Sounders
San Diego
Win Probability
Moneyline
SEA
+195
30.1% win prob
EV -5.6%
Pinnacle
Draw
Draw
+291
25% prob
EV -0.7%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
SD
+119
44.7% win prob
EV -1.1%
Pinnacle
Seattle Sounders travel to San Diego for a match where the simulation clearly favors the hosts. The model projects a tight contest that hinges on goal-scoring efficiency; both teams are forecast in the 1.5–1.9 range, with a 1–1 draw proving most likely across 10,000 simulations. On games shaped like this one—away sides with around 30% win probability—AccuScore's record stands at 46% over 1,278 graded matchups. For Seattle to leave with a result, they will need to exceed their projected output and capitalize on San Diego's inconsistency at the other end.
| Book | SEA | EV | Draw | EV | SD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +195 | -5.6% | +291 | -0.7% | +119 | -1.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | +188 | -6.7% | +270 | -3.4% | +110 | -3.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +180 | -7.9% | +280 | -2.1% | +110 | -3.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | +183 | -7.4% | +286 | -1.4% | +116 | -1.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +103 | -4.7% | -123 | +0.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | -105 | -6.5% | -137 | -2.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | -102 | -5.8% | -130 | -1.0% |
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego 45% to win, Seattle Sounders 30%, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego the more likely winner at 45%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego a 45% chance of beating Seattle Sounders, with 30% for Seattle Sounders and 25% for a draw. San Diego are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Seattle Sounders and San Diego come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Seattle Sounders have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
San Diego have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 4 (D-D-L-D-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2025: Seattle Sounders 1, San Diego 1, 1 drawn. The last meeting, on May 10, 2026, finished San Diego 1, Seattle Sounders 1.