Getafe
Athletic Bilbao
Win Probability
Moneyline
GET
+500
9.0% win prob
EV -23.0%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+303
35% prob
EV +21.1%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
ATH
-143
55.7% win prob
EV -2.7%
1xBet
Athletic Bilbao hosts Getafe in a fixture where the simulation favours the home side decisively. The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Athletic Bilbao most likely to win 1–0, an outcome that occurred in 21% of simulations. Getafe will need to generate chances in a hostile environment where just 27% of simulations see the combined score exceed the market total. On games shaped like this one—where the favoured side sits around 60% to win—AccuScore's record stands at 45% over 4,086 graded matchups. For the visitors to leave with a result, they must steal a goal in a game the model expects to belong to their hosts.
| Book | GET | EV | Draw | EV | ATH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +398 | -27.6% | +303 | +21.1% | -154 | -4.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | +400 | -27.5% | +240 | +10.0% | -143 | -2.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | +400 | -27.5% | +290 | +18.8% | -167 | -5.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +450 | -25.3% | +270 | +15.3% | -161 | -4.9% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +450 | -25.3% | +250 | +11.8% | -167 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +121 | -32.4% | -147 | +20.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +120 | -32.5% | -149 | +20.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | +112 | -33.1% | -161 | +18.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | +121 | -32.4% | -147 | +20.6% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 2.5 | +128 | -31.8% | -137 | +22.7% |
La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao 56% to win, Getafe 9%, with a 35% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Athletic Bilbao the more likely winner at 56%, with a 35% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Athletic Bilbao a 56% chance of beating Getafe, with 9% for Getafe and 35% for a draw. Athletic Bilbao are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Getafe and Athletic Bilbao come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Getafe have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-W-W-D-D, most recent first).
Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of their last 5, drawing 2 (D-D-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 18 times since 2017: Getafe 4, Athletic Bilbao 3, 11 drawn. The last meeting, on Apr 5, 2026, finished Athletic Bilbao 0, Getafe 2.