Los Angeles Galaxy
Los Angeles FC
Win Probability
Moneyline
LA
+450
15.7% win prob
EV -6.8%
BetVictor
Draw
Draw
+380
24% prob
EV +6.9%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
LAFC
-189
60.6% win prob
EV -3.7%
Betano
Los Angeles FC hosts LA Galaxy in a matchup where the model decisively favours the home side. The simulation turns on offensive execution: LAFC's attack is projected to generate 1.8 goals while LA Galaxy's is expected to manage just 0.8. Across eight structurally similar games, AccuScore's favoured side won four times. For LA Galaxy to upset the projection, it would need to tighten its defence and convert chances at a rate the model sees as unlikely in this matchup.
| Book | LA | EV | Draw | EV | LAFC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +442 | -7.5% | +380 | +6.9% | -196 | -4.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +450 | -6.8% | +375 | +6.3% | -213 | -5.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | +425 | -8.8% | +333 | +1.3% | -189 | -3.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | +400 | -10.7% | +340 | +2.1% | -200 | -4.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +450 | -6.8% | +350 | +3.3% | -222 | -6.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +104 | -22.4% | -127 | +15.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -278 | -16.8% | +188 | +23.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +100 | -22.9% | -137 | +13.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | -104 | -23.5% | -139 | +12.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | -101 | -23.1% | -132 | +14.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 23.7%
MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles FC 61% to win, Los Angeles Galaxy 16%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles FC the more likely winner at 61%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles FC a 61% chance of beating Los Angeles Galaxy, with 16% for Los Angeles Galaxy and 24% for a draw. Los Angeles FC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Los Angeles Galaxy and Los Angeles FC come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Los Angeles Galaxy have won 3 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (D-W-D-L-D, most recent first).
The teams have met 21 times since 2018: Los Angeles Galaxy 8, Los Angeles FC 7, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Jul 17, 2026, finished Los Angeles FC 3, Los Angeles Galaxy 0.