Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche Prediction, Odds & Live Score — Oct 10

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NHL•Sat, Oct 10 • 11:00 PM

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

2-2

COL

Colorado Avalanche

2-1

Win Probability

Moneyline

TOR

23.5% win prob

Moneyline

COL

76.5% win prob

Analysis

The simulation decisively favours the Colorado Avalanche hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup that turns on which team's offence translates to production. Nathan MacKinnon projects a 44% chance of more than one point, while Gabriel Landeskog has a 49% chance of registering at least one. Toronto will need William Nylander to exceed his 26% projection for a multi-point night, but the Maple Leafs enter as significant underdogs. AccuScore's model has returned 1.1% on games shaped like this one, winning 69% of them over 538 graded instances. For Toronto to pull the upset, its depth scoring would have to outpace Colorado's depth in a road environment where that rarely happens.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)TOR -1.5

6-0.25-6.5

TOR Cover

26.8%

no odds at this line

COL Cover

73.2%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5

0.56.7513

Over Cover

51.3%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

48.7%

no odds at this line

Where to Bet

DraftKingsBet →FanDuelBet →BetMGMBet →KalshiBet →PolymarketBet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 77% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (24%).

Projection updated Oct 4, 10:29 AM ET

Who will win Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche?

AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Colorado Avalanche beat Toronto Maple Leafs?

AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado Avalanche a 77% chance of beating Toronto Maple Leafs, against 24% for Toronto Maple Leafs. Colorado Avalanche are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Toronto Maple LeafsWLWL

Oct 6vs Nashville PredatorsW 5–4
Oct 3vs Ottawa SenatorsL 2–3
Sep 30vs New York IslandersW 2–1
Sep 29vs Montreal CanadiensL 2–3

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 2 of their last 4 (W-L-W-L, most recent first).

Colorado AvalancheLWW

Oct 7at Winnipeg JetsL 2–3
Oct 3vs St. Louis BluesW 6–1
Sep 30vs Los Angeles KingsW 8–4

Colorado Avalanche have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 15 times since 2011: Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Colorado Avalanche 8. The last meeting, on Jan 8, 2022, finished Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Colorado Avalanche 5.

Jan 8, 2022TOR 4 – 5 COL
Dec 1, 2021COL 3 – 8 TOR
Dec 4, 2019COL 3 – 1 TOR
Nov 23, 2019TOR 5 – 3 COL
Feb 12, 2019TOR 5 – 2 COL

Every Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche meeting →

Betting trends

Toronto Maple Leafs are 245-176 as favourite and 142-204 as underdog, and 178-212 on the road (46% of 390 games, 2011–2022).

Colorado Avalanche are 234-138 as favourite and 175-243 as underdog, and 227-173 at home (57% of 400 games, 2011–2022).

Record	TOR	COL
As favourite	245-176	234-138
As underdog	142-204	175-243
At home	216-176	227-173
On the road	178-212	185-217

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →