Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Win Probability
Moneyline
CEL
+252
16.9% win prob
EV -20.3%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+252
25% prob
EV -5.8%
1xBet
Moneyline
RAY
+124
58.0% win prob
EV +15.0%
1xBet
Rayo Vallecano hosts Celta de Vigo in a fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a low-scoring affair tilted toward Rayo, with the game turning on whether Celta can generate enough attacking threat to overcome a defence the numbers expect to dominate. In similar matchups over AccuScore's history—games where the home side carried roughly this level of advantage—the favoured team won 50% of the time. For Celta to emerge with a result, their attacking players would need to outperform the simulation's expectation of a relatively quiet day in front of goal.
| Book | CEL | EV | Draw | EV | RAY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +240 | -21.3% | +233 | -8.2% | +119 | +13.5% |
| William Hill ↗ | +230 | -22.1% | +225 | -9.2% | +115 | +12.3% |
| Marathon ↗ | +242 | -21.1% | +242 | -7.1% | +118 | +13.2% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +252 | -20.3% | +252 | -5.8% | +124 | +15.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +105 | +0.9% | -127 | -5.0% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | +105 | +0.9% | -127 | -5.0% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 2.5 | +111 | +2.4% | -119 | -3.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.0%
La Liga
AccuScore's simulation makes Rayo Vallecano 58% to win, Celta Vigo 17%, with a 25% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Rayo Vallecano the more likely winner at 58%, with a 25% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Rayo Vallecano a 58% chance of beating Celta Vigo, with 17% for Celta Vigo and 25% for a draw. Rayo Vallecano are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Celta Vigo have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 3 (W-D-L-D-D, most recent first).
Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 1 (D-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 12 times since 2019: Celta Vigo 3, Rayo Vallecano 3, 6 drawn. The last meeting, on Jan 18, 2026, finished Rayo Vallecano 0, Celta Vigo 3.