MLB
New York Yankees
93-68
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Win Probability
Moneyline
NYY
41.0% win prob
Moneyline
TB
59.0% win prob
Projected score
2.2 – 2.6
The New York Yankees travel to face the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. Jonny Deluca projects to reach base in half his appearances, while Victor Mesa Jr. has a 23% chance of a home run in this contest. The game likely turns on whether Tampa Bay's offense can sustain pressure early, as the total leans toward an even split between over and under. AccuScore's model has returned minus 3.1 percent on games shaped like this one across more than 6,300 prior matchups. The Yankees would need to win a close contest outright to buck that historical pattern.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 NYY
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F5 Total
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F5 TB
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| Book | Line | TB | EV | NYY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -172 | -19.5% | +150 | +26.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | +1.5 | -175 | -19.7% | +140 | +23.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -172 | -19.5% | +145 | +25.3% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +1.5 | -182 | -20.1% | +130 | +20.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -169 | -19.3% | +133 | +21.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 6.5 | -109 | -23.6% | -105 | +20.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | -23.7% | -110 | +19.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 6.5 | -116 | -24.4% | -105 | +20.7% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 6.5 | -125 | -25.2% | -115 | +17.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | 6.5 | -114 | -24.2% | -111 | +18.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 67.3%
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 59% to beat New York Yankees (41%). Projected score: New York Yankees 2.2, Tampa Bay Rays 2.6.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 59% chance of beating New York Yankees, against 41% for New York Yankees. Tampa Bay Rays are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects New York Yankees 2.2, Tampa Bay Rays 2.6.