NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning
3-1
New York Islanders
2-2
Win Probability
Moneyline
TB
-129
46.2% win prob
EV -9.0%
melbet
Moneyline
NYI
+148
53.8% win prob
EV +16.7%
Polymarket
The New York Islanders host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Nikita Kucherov projects as the most likely point producer on either roster at 69%, while Matthew Schaefer and Jake Guentzel sit at 50% and 53% respectively. The game turns on whether Tampa Bay can generate enough secondary scoring; Brayden Point sits at just 34% to register a point, a significant gap below the visitors' other contributors. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has gone 50% over 1738 matchups. For Tampa Bay to pull the upset, it would need production beyond its top line to materialize.
| Book | NYI | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| melbet | +114 | +7.6% | -129 | -9.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +148 | +16.7% | -172 | -13.5% |
| midnite | +100 | +3.8% | -149 | -11.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 5.5 | -123 | -0.6% | -105 | -5.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.8%
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Islanders 54% to beat Tampa Bay Lightning (46%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Islanders the more likely winner at 54%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Islanders a 54% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 46% for Tampa Bay Lightning. New York Islanders are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 4 (W-W-W-L, most recent first).
New York Islanders have won 2 of their last 4 (W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 46 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 27, New York Islanders 19. The last meeting, on Apr 29, 2022, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 6, New York Islanders 4.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 416-235 as favourite and 96-119 as underdog, and 230-206 on the road (53% of 436 games, 2011–2022).
New York Islanders are 224-154 as favourite and 183-237 as underdog, and 222-182 at home (55% of 404 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | TB | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 416-235 | 224-154 |
| As underdog | 96-119 | 183-237 |
| At home | 291-150 | 222-182 |
| On the road | 230-206 | 191-213 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →