Cleveland Guardians
85-77
Tampa Bay Rays
98-64
Win Probability
Moneyline
CLE
31.1% win prob
Moneyline
TB
68.8% win prob
The simulation leans clearly toward the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the visiting Cleveland Guardians. Foster Griffin's strikeout projection of 12.0 anchors a pitching advantage that shapes the game's trajectory, while Victor Mesa Jr. carries a 34% chance of going deep. On games built this way—where the home side rates a decisive favorite—AccuScore's model has won 57% over thousands of graded contests. Cleveland would need to elevate its contact rate and get production from lower-probability sources like Brayan Rocchio, who projects to hit in just under half his plate appearances, to overcome the pitching edge.
1st 5 Innings — AccuScore Projection
F5 CLE
—
F5 Total
—
F5 TB
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| Book | Line | TB | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +1.5 | -312 | -14.7% | +247 | +30.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | +1.5 | -294 | -14.1% | +205 | +20.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | +1.5 | -333 | -15.2% | +226 | +25.7% |
| 1xBet ↗ | +1.5 | -333 | -15.2% | +226 | +25.7% |
| Betano ↗ | +1.5 | -303 | -14.4% | +220 | +24.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 7 | +110 | +9.8% | -127 | -11.2% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 6.5 | -133 | +4.5% | -115 | -14.7% |
| Marathon ↗ | 7 | +104 | +8.2% | -135 | -12.1% |
| 1xBet ↗ | 7 | +104 | +8.2% | -135 | -12.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 7.5 | +135 | +11.3% | -175 | -12.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 62.3%
MLB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 69% to beat Cleveland Guardians (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Rays a 69% chance of beating Cleveland Guardians, against 31% for Cleveland Guardians. Tampa Bay Rays are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 98 times since 2010: Cleveland Guardians 44, Tampa Bay Rays 54. The last meeting, on Jul 26, 2026, finished Cleveland Guardians 0, Tampa Bay Rays 1.
Cleveland Guardians are 823-553 as favourite and 434-571 as underdog, and 609-604 on the road (50% of 1213 games, 2010–2026).
Tampa Bay Rays are 816-638 as favourite and 470-501 as underdog, and 677-554 at home (55% of 1231 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | CLE | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 823-553 | 816-638 |
| As underdog | 434-571 | 470-501 |
| At home | 668-534 | 677-554 |
| On the road | 609-604 | 623-601 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the MLB odds have moved →