Washington Capitals
3-2
Carolina Hurricanes
5-1
Win Probability
The simulation favours the Carolina Hurricanes decisively in this matchup. Sebastian Aho projects to a 60% chance of posting more than 0.5 points, while Jackson Blake sits at 53%; for Washington Capitals, Dylan Strome reaches that mark in 47% of outcomes. The game hinges on whether Carolina can convert its depth into goals—the projected output gap between the teams is meaningful. On similar games across 538 graded fixtures, AccuScore's model-favoured side won at a 69% clip. For Washington to pull the upset, Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals' top producers would need to exceed their individual projections substantially while Carolina's secondary scoring misfires.
| Book | Line | CAR | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1.5 | +136 | — | -162 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | +154 | — | -192 | — |
| Book | CAR | EV | WAS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -162 | +7.3% | +136 | -15.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -154 | +8.5% | +128 | -16.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | +105 | +1.4% | -125 | -5.1% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Carolina Hurricanes 71% to beat Washington Capitals (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Carolina Hurricanes the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Carolina Hurricanes a 71% chance of beating Washington Capitals, against 29% for Washington Capitals. Carolina Hurricanes are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Washington Capitals have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Carolina Hurricanes have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 47 times since 2011: Washington Capitals 31, Carolina Hurricanes 16. The last meeting, on Oct 2, 2026, finished Washington Capitals 5, Carolina Hurricanes 2.
Washington Capitals are 358-219 as favourite and 122-130 as underdog, and 234-190 on the road (55% of 424 games, 2011–2022).
Carolina Hurricanes are 211-160 as favourite and 164-239 as underdog, and 215-178 at home (55% of 393 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | WAS | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 358-219 | 211-160 |
| As underdog | 122-130 | 164-239 |
| At home | 256-164 | 215-178 |
| On the road | 234-190 | 168-227 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →