Tampa Bay Lightning
4-1
New York Rangers
5-2
Win Probability
Tampa Bay Lightning visit Madison Square Garden for a coin-flip matchup against the New York Rangers, with the simulation favouring the home side only barely. Nikita Kucherov projects as the game's most dangerous scorer at 72% to reach 0.5 points, while Mika Zibanejad sits at 60%, making their respective contributions pivotal to the outcome. The game turns on whether the offences can sustain production; the simulation expects a tight, low-scoring affair with both teams approaching three goals. AccuScore's model has won 50% of the time on games shaped like this one across 1,738 historical instances. For Tampa Bay to pull the upset on the road, it will need Kucherov to deliver on his elevated scoring chances while containing Zibanejad's impact at even strength.
| Book | Line | NYR | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -180 | — | +150 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -170 | — | +138 | — |
| Book | NYR | EV | TB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +136 | +11.6% | -162 | -11.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +134 | +11.1% | -162 | -11.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 5.5 | -135 | +0.7% | +114 | -5.3% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Rangers 52% to beat Tampa Bay Lightning (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New York Rangers the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New York Rangers a 52% chance of beating Tampa Bay Lightning, against 48% for Tampa Bay Lightning. New York Rangers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
New York Rangers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 41 times since 2011: Tampa Bay Lightning 21, New York Rangers 20. The last meeting, on Oct 1, 2026, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 5.
Tampa Bay Lightning are 416-235 as favourite and 96-119 as underdog, and 230-206 on the road (53% of 436 games, 2011–2022).
New York Rangers are 277-173 as favourite and 152-199 as underdog, and 235-178 at home (57% of 413 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | TB | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 416-235 | 277-173 |
| As underdog | 96-119 | 152-199 |
| At home | 291-150 | 235-178 |
| On the road | 230-206 | 204-204 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →