Toronto Maple Leafs
3-2
Utah Mammoth
4-2
Win Probability
Utah Mammoth host Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation favours the home side clearly. Auston Matthews projects at 67% to record more than 0.5 points, while Clayton Keller sits at 66%—both teams' offensive engines firing at similar rates. The gap between them turns on depth: William Nylander carries only a 66% projection against Mikhail Sergachev at 57%, suggesting Utah's secondary scoring holds the advantage. AccuScore's model has graded 1,928 games shaped like this one and won 60% of them, returning minus 0.3%. For Toronto to pull the upset, their lead scorers would need to dominate while Utah's role players underperform their typical contributions.
| Book | Line | UTA | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1.5 | +142 | — | -170 | — |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | +148 | — | -184 | — |
| Book | UTA | EV | TOR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -155 | +2.1% | +130 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -164 | +0.9% | +136 | -6.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 6.5 | -108 | +0.4% | -112 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 6.5 | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth 63% to beat Toronto Maple Leafs (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah Mammoth the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah Mammoth a 63% chance of beating Toronto Maple Leafs, against 37% for Toronto Maple Leafs. Utah Mammoth are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Toronto Maple Leafs and Utah Mammoth come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Utah Mammoth have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 245-176 as favourite and 142-204 as underdog, and 178-212 on the road (46% of 390 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | TOR | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 245-176 | — |
| As underdog | 142-204 | — |
| At home | 216-176 | — |
| On the road | 178-212 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →