MLB

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

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MLB•Thu, Oct 15 • 10:00 PMSilver Edge

Tampa Bay Rays

98-64

CLE

Cleveland Guardians

85-77

Win Probability

Moneyline

+113

52.9% win prob

EV +6.3%

Kalshi

Moneyline

CLE

-113

47.1% win prob

EV -5.6%

Kalshi

Analysis

The Tampa Bay Rays travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting side. In games shaped statistically like this one across the model's history, the favored team has won just under half the time—a reminder that close calls break either way. How much run-scoring happens will determine the outcome: the projection sits exactly at the market's total, meaning whether this stays low-scoring or breaks open could easily shift the result. Cleveland would need to hold Tampa Bay's offense in check to pull off the upset; any break toward a higher-scoring game favors the Rays.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Run Line (-1.5/+1.5)TB -1.5

10.5-0.25-11

TB Cover

35.2%

no odds at this line

CLE Cover

64.8%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 7.5

110.520

Over Cover

45.0%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

55.0%

no odds at this line

Player Props

CLE TB

Best prop edge: Victor Mesa Jr. — Hits O0.5+19.8% EV

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Odds Comparison

Moneyline

Book	CLE	EV	TB	EV
Kalshi ↗	-113	-5.6%	+113	+6.3%

Where to Bet

silver

TB ML+6.3% EV

Win probability: 52.9%

Kalshi

+113Bet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays 53% to beat Cleveland Guardians (47%).

Projection updated Oct 13, 6:29 AM ET

Who will win Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians?

AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Rays the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Cleveland Guardians beat Tampa Bay Rays?

AccuScore's simulation gives Cleveland Guardians a 47% chance of beating Tampa Bay Rays, against 53% for Tampa Bay Rays. Cleveland Guardians are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Tampa Bay RaysLWWWL

Oct 12vs Cleveland GuardiansL 3–7
Oct 7at New York YankeesW 4–3
Oct 5vs New York YankeesW 5–2
Oct 3vs New York YankeesW 1–0
Sep 27at Philadelphia PhilliesL 3–7

Tampa Bay Rays have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).

Cleveland GuardiansWWWWL

Oct 12at Tampa Bay RaysW 7–3
Oct 10vs Chicago White SoxW 2–0
Oct 8at Chicago White SoxW 9–5
Oct 7at Chicago White SoxW 9–3
Oct 5vs Chicago White SoxL 3–4

Cleveland Guardians have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 99 times since 2010: Tampa Bay Rays 54, Cleveland Guardians 45. The last meeting, on Oct 12, 2026, finished Cleveland Guardians 7, Tampa Bay Rays 3.

Oct 12, 2026CLE 7 – 3 TB
Jul 26, 2026CLE 0 – 1 TB
Jul 25, 2026CLE 0 – 3 TB
Jul 24, 2026CLE 3 – 11 TB
Apr 29, 2026TB 3 – 1 CLE

Every Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians meeting →

Betting trends

Tampa Bay Rays are 816-639 as favourite and 470-501 as underdog, and 623-601 on the road (51% of 1224 games, 2010–2026).

Cleveland Guardians are 823-553 as favourite and 435-571 as underdog, and 668-534 at home (56% of 1202 games, 2010–2026).

Record	TB	CLE
As favourite	816-639	823-553
As underdog	470-501	435-571
At home	677-555	668-534
On the road	623-601	610-604

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the MLB odds have moved →