Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Live Score — Oct 15

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NHL•Thu, Oct 15 • 11:00 PMSilver Edge

BUF

Buffalo Sabres

3-3

TOR

Toronto Maple Leafs

3-2

Win Probability

Moneyline

BUF

-104

39.7% win prob

EV -11.1%

Kalshi

Moneyline

TOR

+111

60.3% win prob

EV +13.6%

Kalshi

Analysis

When Buffalo Sabres visit Toronto Maple Leafs, the simulation favours the home side clearly. William Nylander and Auston Matthews each project above 70% to record more than 0.5 points, while Buffalo's best scoring chance comes from Rasmus Dahlin at 51%. The game turns on whether Toronto can convert that offensive advantage into goals, since the projected total sits right at the market line. Over 1,928 similar games where the model backed the home side at this win probability, AccuScore's picks won 60% of the time. For Buffalo to pull the upset, it would need production from deeper in its lineup—Tage Thompson, Jack Quinn, and the secondary scorers all sit well below 50%.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)BUF -1.5

81.5-5

BUF Cover

51.4%

no odds at this line

TOR Cover

48.6%

no odds at this line

Total (Over/Under)O/U 6.5

0.56.7513

Over Cover

49.7%

no odds at this line

Under Cover

50.3%

no odds at this line

Player Props

TOR BUF

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Odds Comparison

Moneyline

Book	TOR	EV	BUF	EV
Kalshi ↗	+111	+13.6%	-104	-11.1%

Where to Bet

silver

TOR ML+13.6% EV

Win probability: 60.3%

Kalshi

+111Bet →

AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs 60% to beat Buffalo Sabres (40%).

Projection updated Oct 13, 10:45 AM ET

Who will win Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs the more likely winner at 60%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Toronto Maple Leafs beat Buffalo Sabres?

AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 60% chance of beating Buffalo Sabres, against 40% for Buffalo Sabres. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home and favoured on these numbers.

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Buffalo Sabres and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Buffalo SabresWLLWW

Oct 12vs Florida PanthersW 5–3
Oct 10vs Utah MammothL 1–4
Oct 8vs Dallas StarsL 0–4
Oct 6vs Minnesota WildW 3–2
Oct 3vs Chicago BlackhawksW 4–3

Buffalo Sabres have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).

Toronto Maple LeafsWLWLW

Oct 10at Colorado AvalancheW 6–3
Oct 8at Vegas Golden KnightsL 3–4
Oct 6vs Nashville PredatorsW 5–4
Oct 3vs Ottawa SenatorsL 2–3
Sep 30vs New York IslandersW 2–1

Toronto Maple Leafs have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 39 times since 2011: Buffalo Sabres 19, Toronto Maple Leafs 20. The last meeting, on Apr 12, 2022, finished Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.

Apr 12, 2022BUF 5 – 2 TOR
Mar 13, 2022TOR 2 – 5 BUF
Mar 2, 2022BUF 5 – 1 TOR
Nov 13, 2021TOR 5 – 4 BUF
Feb 16, 2020TOR 2 – 5 BUF

Every Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs meeting →

Betting trends

Buffalo Sabres are 76-71 as favourite and 202-380 as underdog, and 127-245 on the road (34% of 372 games, 2011–2022).

Toronto Maple Leafs are 245-176 as favourite and 142-204 as underdog, and 216-176 at home (55% of 392 games, 2011–2022).

Record	BUF	TOR
As favourite	76-71	245-176
As underdog	202-380	142-204
At home	157-214	216-176
On the road	127-245	178-212

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →