NHL
Seattle Kraken
4-2
Tampa Bay Lightning
4-1
Win Probability
The simulation decisively favours the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Seattle Kraken. Nikita Kucherov carries a 76% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Brandon Montour sits at 43%—a gap that captures the gap between the teams. The game turns on whether Seattle's depth can generate enough offence to offset Tampa Bay's scoring threat; across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the favoured home side won five. For the Kraken to pull the upset, they would need secondary scoring from players like Jared McCann, who projects at just 43% to post more than 0.5 points.
| Book | TB | EV | SEA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -199 | +2.7% | +199 | -5.3% |
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 70% to beat Seattle Kraken (30%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 70% chance of beating Seattle Kraken, against 30% for Seattle Kraken. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Seattle Kraken and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Seattle Kraken have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2021: Seattle Kraken 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 2. The last meeting, on Mar 16, 2022, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Seattle Kraken 1.
Seattle Kraken are 8-9 as favourite and 19-46 as underdog, and 11-30 on the road (27% of 41 games, 2021–2022).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 416-235 as favourite and 96-119 as underdog, and 291-150 at home (66% of 441 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | SEA | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 8-9 | 416-235 |
| As underdog | 19-46 | 96-119 |
| At home | 16-25 | 291-150 |
| On the road | 11-30 | 230-206 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →