Pittsburgh Penguins
3-3
Colorado Avalanche
4-2
Win Probability
The Colorado Avalanche host Pittsburgh Penguins in a matchup the simulation clearly favors for the home side. Nathan MacKinnon carries a 74% chance of recording more than 0.5 points, while Erik Karlsson reaches that mark in 54% of outcomes—a gap that reflects Colorado's offensive depth advantage. The game turns on whether Pittsburgh can generate scoring support; Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin each project at just 41%, leaving the visitors dependent on secondary production. AccuScore's model has won 60% of similar games favoring the home side over 1928 graded matchups, a modest edge that reflects genuine but incomplete conviction. For the Penguins to pull the upset, their depth scorers will need to outperform their projections while Colorado's supporting cast underperforms.
| Book | COL | EV | PIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -170 | +1.7% | +186 | -0.1% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche 65% to beat Pittsburgh Penguins (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Colorado Avalanche the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado Avalanche a 65% chance of beating Pittsburgh Penguins, against 35% for Pittsburgh Penguins. Colorado Avalanche are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Pittsburgh Penguins and Colorado Avalanche come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pittsburgh Penguins have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Colorado Avalanche have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 16 times since 2011: Pittsburgh Penguins 9, Colorado Avalanche 7. The last meeting, on Apr 5, 2022, finished Colorado Avalanche 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4.
Pittsburgh Penguins are 373-236 as favourite and 99-110 as underdog, and 210-205 on the road (51% of 415 games, 2011–2022).
Colorado Avalanche are 234-138 as favourite and 175-243 as underdog, and 227-173 at home (57% of 400 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | PIT | COL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 373-236 | 234-138 |
| As underdog | 99-110 | 175-243 |
| At home | 273-146 | 227-173 |
| On the road | 210-205 | 185-217 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →