Vancouver Canucks
2-6
Tampa Bay Lightning
4-2
Win Probability
The simulation decisively favours the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Vancouver Canucks. Nikita Kucherov projects as the game's most dangerous offensive threat at 78% to record more than 0.5 points, while Elias Pettersson sits at 49% — a meaningful gap that reflects where scoring punch is concentrated. The matchup turns on whether Vancouver can generate secondary production; Jake DeBrusk and Brock Boeser both check in below 35%, leaving the Canucks dependent on their top line in a hostile environment. On similar win-probability shapes, AccuScore's model has gone 69% over 538 games. For the Canucks to pull the upset, they would need to find contributions beyond Pettersson and overcome a Lightning offence led by Kucherov and Brandon Hagel at 63%.
| Book | TB | EV | VAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -285 | +2.3% | +292 | -5.9% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning 78% to beat Vancouver Canucks (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tampa Bay Lightning the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tampa Bay Lightning a 78% chance of beating Vancouver Canucks, against 23% for Vancouver Canucks. Tampa Bay Lightning are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Vancouver Canucks and Tampa Bay Lightning come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Vancouver Canucks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 14 times since 2012: Vancouver Canucks 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 9. The last meeting, on Mar 13, 2022, finished Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Vancouver Canucks 1.
Vancouver Canucks are 154-128 as favourite and 199-268 as underdog, and 168-216 on the road (44% of 384 games, 2011–2022).
Tampa Bay Lightning are 416-235 as favourite and 96-119 as underdog, and 291-150 at home (66% of 441 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | VAN | TB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 154-128 | 416-235 |
| As underdog | 199-268 | 96-119 |
| At home | 194-190 | 291-150 |
| On the road | 168-216 | 230-206 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →