New York Islanders
3-3
Toronto Maple Leafs
3-3
Win Probability
The New York Islanders visit Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Toronto's top-line weapons project to carry the load: William Nylander has a 68% chance of reaching 0.5 points, while Auston Matthews sits at 67%. For the Islanders, Matthew Schaefer offers the best scoring probability at 56%, but the visitors' offensive depth thins considerably after that. Whether New York can generate consistent secondary scoring will determine if this stays close, since AccuScore's model has gone 50% on games shaped this way historically. An upset would require the Islanders to get contributions beyond their top two names while holding Toronto's stars in check.
| Book | TOR | EV | NYI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -113 | +3.7% | +111 | -4.6% |
NHL
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs 57% to beat New York Islanders (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Toronto Maple Leafs the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Toronto Maple Leafs a 57% chance of beating New York Islanders, against 43% for New York Islanders. Toronto Maple Leafs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New York Islanders have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Toronto Maple Leafs have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 27 times since 2012: New York Islanders 11, Toronto Maple Leafs 16. The last meeting, on Sep 30, 2026, finished New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2.
New York Islanders are 224-154 as favourite and 183-237 as underdog, and 191-213 on the road (47% of 404 games, 2011–2022).
Toronto Maple Leafs are 245-176 as favourite and 142-204 as underdog, and 216-176 at home (55% of 392 games, 2011–2022).
| Record | NYI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 224-154 | 245-176 |
| As underdog | 183-237 | 142-204 |
| At home | 222-182 | 216-176 |
| On the road | 191-213 | 178-212 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →