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← Today's Edges
NHL•Sat, Oct 17 • 11:00 PMSilver Edge
OTT

Ottawa Senators

5-2

VS
PHI

Philadelphia Flyers

0-5

Win Probability

Moneyline

OTT

-127

62.0% win prob

EV +5.4%

Kalshi

Moneyline

PHI

+120

38.0% win prob

EV -8.2%

Kalshi

Analysis

When the Ottawa Senators visit Philadelphia, the simulation favours the visitors clearly. Tim Stutzle projects to a 59% chance of posting more than 0.5 points, while Travis Konecny, the Flyers' best bet on the other side, sits at 42%. The game turns on whether Ottawa's depth can sustain pressure: Drake Batherson at 36% and William Eklund at 36% need to contribute beyond the top line for the visitors to pull away. Across eight recent games with this win-probability shape, the favoured side won seven times. Philadelphia would need to steal one through secondary scoring—Owen Tippett and Trevor Zegras remain well below 50% to register even a point.

Probability Explorer— drag to explore lines

Puck Line (-1.5/+1.5)OTT -1.5
60-6
OTT Cover
38.5%
no odds at this line
PHI Cover
61.5%
no odds at this line
Total (Over/Under)O/U 5
0.55.7511
Over Cover
33.9%
no odds at this line
Under Cover
42.5%
no odds at this line
Push 23.6% — stake returned if it lands exactly on the total

Player Props

PHI OTT
Sort:

Odds Comparison

Moneyline

BookPHIEVOTTEV
Kalshi ↗+120-8.2%-127+5.4%

Where to Bet

silver
OTT ML+5.4% EV

Win probability: 62.0%

Kalshi
-127Bet →

NHL

Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction, Odds & Live Score

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET

AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators 62% to beat Philadelphia Flyers (38%).

Projection updated Oct 14, 7:35 AM ET

Who will win Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers?

AccuScore's simulation makes Ottawa Senators the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.

Will Philadelphia Flyers beat Ottawa Senators?

AccuScore's simulation gives Philadelphia Flyers a 38% chance of beating Ottawa Senators, against 62% for Ottawa Senators. Philadelphia Flyers are at home but the underdog on these numbers.

Every Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers meeting →Ottawa Senators predictions & record →Philadelphia Flyers predictions & record →

Form, head-to-head and betting trends

How Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.

Recent form

Ottawa SenatorsLWWWL
  • Oct 13vs St. Louis BluesL 2–7
  • Oct 12at New Jersey DevilsW 4–1
  • Oct 10vs Nashville PredatorsW 3–2
  • Oct 8vs Philadelphia FlyersW 2–1
  • Oct 6at Detroit Red WingsL 3–5

Ottawa Senators have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).

Philadelphia FlyersLLLLL
  • Oct 13vs Seattle KrakenL 2–3
  • Oct 11vs Carolina HurricanesL 1–4
  • Oct 10at Boston BruinsL 1–5
  • Oct 8at Ottawa SenatorsL 1–2
  • Oct 5at Tampa Bay LightningL 1–4

Philadelphia Flyers have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).

Head-to-head

The teams have met 28 times since 2011: Ottawa Senators 14, Philadelphia Flyers 14. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2026, finished Philadelphia Flyers 1, Ottawa Senators 2.

  • Oct 8, 2026PHI 1 – 2 OTT
  • Apr 29, 2022OTT 4 – 2 PHI
  • Mar 18, 2022PHI 1 – 3 OTT
  • Dec 18, 2021OTT 3 – 4 PHI
  • Dec 21, 2019PHI 5 – 4 OTT
Every Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers meeting →

Betting trends

Ottawa Senators are 107-87 as favourite and 236-341 as underdog, and 153-234 on the road (40% of 387 games, 2011–2022).

Philadelphia Flyers are 188-144 as favourite and 177-261 as underdog, and 207-185 at home (53% of 392 games, 2011–2022).

RecordOTTPHI
As favourite107-87188-144
As underdog236-341177-261
At home190-198207-185
On the road153-234161-227

Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the moneyline. How the NHL odds have moved →